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Expert political judgment: how good is it? how can we know?

Author: Tetlock, Philip E. Publisher: Princeton University Press, 2006.Language: EnglishDescription: 321 p. : Graphs ; 24 cm.ISBN: 9780691128719Type of document: BookBibliography/Index: Includes bibliographical references and index
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Item type Current location Collection Call number Status Date due Barcode Item holds
Book Asia Campus
Main Collection
Print JA70 .P7 T48 2006
(Browse shelf)
Available 900203811
Book Europe Campus
Main Collection
Print JA70 .P7 T48 2006
(Browse shelf)
Available 001275070
Total holds: 0

Includes bibliographical references and index


Expert Political Judgement How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Contents ix xi 1 25 Acknowledgments Preface CHAPTER 1 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 3 Quantifying the Unquantifiable The Ego-deflating Challenge of Radical Skepticism Knowing the Limits of One's Knowledge: Foxes Have Better Calibration and Discrimination Scores than Hedgehogs CHAPTER 4 Honoring Reputational Bets: Foxes Are Setter Bayesians than Hedgehogs CHAPTER 5 67 121 Contemplating Counterfactuals: Foxes Are More Willing than Hedgehogs to Entertain Self-subversive Scenarios CHAPTER 6 The Hedgehogs Strike Back CHAPTER 7 Are We Open-minded Enough to Acknowledge the Limits of Open-mindedness? CHAPTER 8 Exploring the Limits on Objectivity and Accountability 144 164 189 216 239 273 313 Methodological Appendix Technical Appendix Phillip Rescober and Philip E. Tetlock Index

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