Expert political judgment: how good is it? how can we know?
Author: Tetlock, Philip E. Publisher: Princeton University Press, 2006.Language: EnglishDescription: 321 p. : Graphs ; 24 cm.ISBN: 9780691128719Type of document: BookBibliography/Index: Includes bibliographical references and index
| Item type | Current location | Collection | Call number | Status | Date due | Barcode | Item holds |
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Asia Campus Main Collection |
JA70 .P7 T48 2006
(Browse shelf) 900203811 |
Available | 900203811 | |||
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Europe Campus Main Collection |
JA70 .P7 T48 2006
(Browse shelf) 001275070 |
Available | 001275070 |
Includes bibliographical references and index
Digitized
Expert Political Judgement How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Contents ix xi 1 25 Acknowledgments Preface CHAPTER 1 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 3 Quantifying the Unquantifiable The Ego-deflating Challenge of Radical Skepticism Knowing the Limits of One's Knowledge: Foxes Have Better Calibration and Discrimination Scores than Hedgehogs CHAPTER 4 Honoring Reputational Bets: Foxes Are Setter Bayesians than Hedgehogs CHAPTER 5 67 121 Contemplating Counterfactuals: Foxes Are More Willing than Hedgehogs to Entertain Self-subversive Scenarios CHAPTER 6 The Hedgehogs Strike Back CHAPTER 7 Are We Open-minded Enough to Acknowledge the Limits of Open-mindedness? CHAPTER 8 Exploring the Limits on Objectivity and Accountability 144 164 189 216 239 273 313 Methodological Appendix Technical Appendix Phillip Rescober and Philip E. Tetlock Index
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