INSEAD Library

Includes bibliographical references and index

Digitized

World Out Of Balance Navigating Global Risks to Seize Competitive Advantage Contents Foreword Acknowledgments Preface Introduction: A Call to Action The Masters of Destiny Taking on a World of Risk Plotting a New Course The Gas Pedal: Technology The First Driver: Globalization The Second Driver: Demographics The Third Driver: The New Consumer The Fourth Driver: Neural Resources and the Environment The Fifth Driver: Regulation and Activism Scenarios and Wild Cards Managing Risks in an Interdependent World Chapter 1: Globalization: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back A (Very) Brief History Industrialization unleashed Modem globalization It's a Small World--and Getting Smaller Economic integration 21 22 22 23 24 25 xi xiii xv 1 2 5 7 8 10 11 13 14 16 17 19 Political globalization The role of the individual Living in a Globalized World Looking deeper Offshoring Revisited Economic Nationalism and Picking Favorites The Invisible Hand Devastating effects Contagion at the Speed of Light Hacker heaven Globalization: Three Possible Scenarios The rise of localization Bilateral half-measures Homo economicus Chapter 2: Demographics: An Age of Extremes A World Gone Gray The baby bust Brave Old World: The Impact of Global Aging Social insecurity Business takes a hit Paying the Bill and Passing the Buck No good options Rewriting the Social Contract The new import: purchasing power Focusing on the family Planning early, retiring late The Youth Bulge: A Ticking Time Bomb? The rise of the megacity Assessing the Implications Searching more shores A new look at older workers Controlling the healthcare colt spiral Demographics: Three Possible Scenarios Restless masses Immigration queue Global talent flow Another paradox 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 35 36 38 39 39 41 42 45 46 47 49 51 52 53 54 56 58 59 60 61 65 67 68 69 70 71 72 72 73 74 Chapter 3: The New Consumer: Forging Bonds in a Fragmented World 75 Consumer Power Shift: The Rise of Emerging Markets 76 From minorities to majorities 79 The Myth of the "Global Consumer" 81 Targeting the young and the younger 84 Rich Consumer, Poor Consumer 85 One size fits one 88 Cracking the Cultural Code 90 Advertising Without Ads: Marketing Revisited 92 Star power 95 The downside: the bacldash 96 The New Consumer: Three Possible Scenarios 98 Rice and beans 98 World bazaar 99 Hey, big spenders 100 Chapter 4: Natural Resources and the Environment: Stretching the Limits Water Scarcity: A Lesson in Trickle-Down Economics Not a Drop to Drink: The Evolution of Water Scarcity Tough choices in emerging markets Tensions Boiling Over: A Future of Water Wars? Tensions across borders Finding common ground One Drop at a Time: Managing Water Scarcity The benefits of going green Finding opportunity in scarcity Hungry for Power: The New Energy Crisis Filling Up the Tank: Potential Sources of Energy Coal: a return to "black gold" Natural gas: demand on the rise Clean energy: promise and problems Roadblocks remain 103 104 105 106 108 109 112 112 114 115 116 118 121 122 123 125 The Heat Is On: The Rising Costs of Climate Change The hardest hits Fifty years to extinction? Big oil: going green Cooler Heads Prevail: Managing Climate Change Natural Resources and the Environment: Three Possible Scenarios Constrained energy Necessary innovation Fuel for growth The price of admission Chapter 5: Regulation and Activism: A New Breed of Challenges We're from the Government, and We're Here to Help A free hand or a strong arm? A Tangled World Wide Web Barriers at the Frontiers of Science Tinkering with the human genome Governments Stretched Too Thin? Dirty, Rotten Scoundrels: The Corporate Image Under Siege Adam Smith takes a hit The Regulators Strike Back A long paper trail Shoot the Messenger: Activists Target Corporations Skip the Molotov cocktail; bring your Blackberry Targeting a new "mass class" Social Responsibility: Sincerity or Spin? Winning hearts and minds--worldwide Regulation and Activism: Three Possible Scenarios Big brother is watching 141 142 143 144 146 147 148 149 151 153 154 155 156 160 161 164 167 168 127 129 131 132 133 135 135 137 137 139 Partial restraint Chicago boys II Chapter 6: Visions of the Future Scenario One: Patchwork World Scenario Two: Castles and Moats Scenario Three: Open Borders, Lingering Fears Parsing Out the Implications Things That Go Bump in the Night: The Wild Cards Global epidemic Major wars Country disintegration Terrorist resurgence Hacker hell Quantum leap The Wild Card Impact? Navigating Risks in Turbulent Times Hope for the Best; Expect the Worst Mapping Your Risk Profile Riding the Whirlwind 168 169 171 175 178 181 184 186 187 188 188 189 189 190 192 195 197 199 206 207 227 Chapter 7: Endnotes Index