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This time is different: eight centuries of financial folly

Author: Reinhart, Carmen M. ; Rogoff, Kenneth S.Publisher: Princeton University Press, 2009.Language: EnglishDescription: 461 p. : Graphs ; 25 cm.ISBN: 9780691142166Type of document: BookBibliography/Index: Includes bibliographical references and index
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Item type Current location Collection Call number Status Date due Barcode Item holds
Book Asia Campus
Main Collection
Print HB3722 .R45 2009
(Browse shelf)
Available 900205109
Book Europe Campus
Main Collection
Print HB3722 .R45 2009
(Browse shelf)
Available 001199870
Total holds: 0

Includes bibliographical references and index


This Time Is Different Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Contents LIST OF TABLES xiii LIST OF FIGURES xvii LIST OF BOXES xxiii PREFACE xxv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xxxvii PREAMBLE: SOME INITIAL INTUITIONS ON FINANCIAL FRAGILITY AND THE FICKLE NATURE OF CONFIDENCE xxxix PART I Financial Crises: An Operational Primer 1 Varieties of Crises and Their Dates 3 Crises Defined by Quantitative Thresholds: Inflation, Currency Crashes, and Debasement Crises Defined by Events: Banking Crises and External and Domestic Default 8 Other Key Concepts 14 2 Debt Intolerance: The Genesis of Serial Default Debt Thresholds 21 21 4 1 Measuring Vulnerability Clubs and Regions 27 Reflections on Debt Intolerance 3 25 29 A Global Database on Financial Crises with a Long-Term View 34 Prices, Exchange Rates, Currency Debasement, and Real GDP 35 Government Finances and National Accounts 39 Public Debt and Its Composition 40 Global Variables 43 Country Coverage 43 PART II Sovereign External Debt Crises 49 4 A Digression on the Theoretical Underpinnings of Debt Crises 51 Sovereign Lending 54 Illiquidity versus Insolvency 59 Partial Default and Rescheduling 61 Odious Debt 63 Domestic Public Debt 64 Conclusions 67 5 Cycles of Sovereign Default on External Debt Recurring Patterns 68 Default and Banking Crises 73 Default and Inflation 75 Global Factors and Cycles of Global External Default The Duration of Default Episodes 81 68 77 6 External Default through History 86 The Early History of Serial Default: Emerging Europe, 1300-1799 86 Capital Inflows and Default: An "Old World" Story 89 External Sovereign Default after 1800: A Global Picture 89 PART III The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt and Default 7 The Stylized Facts of Domestic Debt and Default 103 Domestic and External Debt 103 Maturity, Rates of Return, and Currency Composition 105 Episodes of Domestic Default 110 Some Caveats Regarding Domestic Debt 111 101 8 Domestic Debt: The Missing Link Explaining External Default and High Inflation 119 Understanding the Debt Intolerance Puzzle 119 Domestic Debt on the Eve and in the Aftermath of External Default 123 The Literature on Inflation and the "Inflation Tax" 124 Defining the Tax Base: Domestic Debt or the Monetary Base? 125 The "Temptation to Inflate" Revisited 127 9 Domestic and External Default: Which Is Worse? Who Is Senior? 128 Real GDP in the Run-up to and the Aftermath of Debt Defaults Inflation in the Run-up to and the Aftermath of Debt Defaults The Incidence of Default on Debts Owed to External and Domestic Creditors 133 Summary and Discussion of Selected Issues 136 129 129 PART IV Banking Crises, Inflation, and Currency Crashes 10 Banking Crises 141 A Preamble on the Theory of Banking Crises 139 143 Banking Crises: An Equal-Opportunity Menace 147 Banking Crises, Capital Mobility, and Financial Liberalization 155 Capital Flow Bonanzas, Credit Cycles, and Asset Prices 157 Overcapacity Bubbles in the Financial Industry? 162 The Fiscal Legacy of Financial Crises Revisited 162 Living with the Wreckage: Some Observations 171 11 Default through Debasement: An "Old World Favorite"174 12 Inflation and Modem Currency Crashes An Early History of Inflation Crises 180 181 Modern Inflation Crises: Regional Comparisons 182 Currency Crashes 189 The Aftermath of High Inflation and Currency Collapses 191 Undoing Domestic Dollarization 193 PART V The U.S. Subprime Meltdown and the Second Great Contraction 199 13 The U.S. Subprime Crisis: An International and Historical Comparison 203 A Global Historical View of the Subprime Crisis and Its Aftermath 204 The This-Time-Is-Different Syndrome and the Run-up to the Subprime Crisis 208 Risks Posed by Sustained U.S. Borrowing from the Rest of the World: The Debate before the Crisis 208 The Episodes of Postwar Bank-Centered Financial Crisis 215 A Comparison of the Subprime Crisis with Past Crises in Advanced Economies 216 Summary 221 14 The Aftermath of Financial Crises Historical Episodes Revisited 225 226 223 The Downturn after a Crisis: Depth and Duration The Fiscal Legacy of Crises 231 Sovereign Risk 232 Comparisons with Experiences from the First Great Contraction in the 1930s 233 Concluding Remarks 238 15 The International Dimensions of the Subprime Crisis: The Results of Contagion or Common Fundamentals? 240 Concepts of Contagion 241 Selected Earlier Episodes 241 Common Fundamentals and the Second Great Contraction 242 Are More Spillovers Under Way? 16 Composite Measures of Financial Turmoil 248 Developing a Composite Index of Crises: The BCDI Index 249 Defining a Global Financial Crisis The Sequencing of Crises: A Prototype Summary 273 260 270 246 PART VI What Have We Learned? 275 17 Reflections on Early Warnings, Graduation, Policy Responses, and the Foibles of Human Nature On Early Warnings of Crises 278 281 287 The Role of International Institutions Graduation 283 Some Observations on Policy Responses 277 The Latest Version of the This-Time-Is-Different Syndrome 290 DATA APPENDIXES 293 A.1. Macroeconomic Time Series 295 A.2. Public Debt 327 A.3. Dates of Banking Crises 344 A.4. Historical Summaries of Banking Crises NOTES 393 REFERENCES 409 NAME INDEX 435 SUBJECT INDEX 443 348

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