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Information markets: a new way of making decisions

Author: Hahn, Robert W. ; Tetlock, Paul C.Publisher: American Enterprise Institute, 2006.Language: EnglishDescription: 201 p. : Graphs ; 23 cm.ISBN: 9780844742281Type of document: BookBibliography/Index: Includes bibliographical references and index
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Item type Current location Collection Call number Status Date due Barcode Item holds
Book Europe Campus
Main Collection
Print H61.4 .I64 2006
(Browse shelf)
Available 001252057
Total holds: 0

Includes bibliographical references and index


Information Markets A New Way of Making Decisions Contents LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS PREFACE 1 INTRODUCTION TO INFORMATION MARKETS, Robert W. Hahn and Paul C. Tetloch Plan of This Book 7 Conclusion 10 Notes 11 2 FIVE OPEN QUESTIONS ABOUT PREDICTION MARKETS, Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz A Framework 16 Attracting Uninformed Traders 19 Balancing Interest and Contractibility 21 Managing Manipulation 22 Ensuring Calibration on Small Probabilities 23 Separating Correlation and Causation 25 Conclusions 31 Notes 33 3 DESIGNING INFORMATION MARKETS FOR POLICY ANALYSIS, John O. Ledyard Information Markets for Prediction 37 Information Markets for Decisions 44 Knowing What Works 50 Final Thoughts 61 Notes 62 4 DELIBERATION AND INFORMATION MARKETS, Cass R. Sunstein Deliberating Groups 69 ix xi 1 13 37 67 Sources of Deliberative Failure 71 Deliberative Failure 1: Amplification of Cognitive Errors 74 Deliberative Failure 2: Hidden Profiles and Common Knowledge 75 Deliberative Failure 3: Cascades 78 Deliberative Failure 4: Group Polarization 82 Information Markets 84 Conclusion 93 Notes 95 5 DELIBERATIVE INFORMATION MARKETS FOR SMALL GROUPS, Michael Abramowicz The Benefits of Information Revelation 102 Small-Group Information Markets 106 Deliberative Information Markets 112 Conclusion 121 Notes 123 6 FOUL PLAY IN INFORMATION MARKETS, Robin Hanson Evaluation Standards 127 Limiting Participation 128 Lying 128 Manipulation 129 Sabotage 132 Embezzlement 134 Retribution 136 Conclusion 137 Notes 139 7 THE IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS: STYLIZED FACTS AND OPEN ISSUES, Joyce E. Berg and Thomas A. Rietz IEM Overview 143 Stylized Facts from IEM Markets 145 Open Issues 155 Conclusion 163 Notes 165 101 126 142 8 A NEW TOOL FOR PROMOTING ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, 170 Robert W Hahn and Paul C. Tetlock A New Development Model 172 Setting Development Priorities: The Copenhagen Consensus 177 Rethinking Existing Development Efforts 184 The Transition to a Performance-Based Development Paradigm 188 Notes 191 INDEX ABOUT THE AUTHORS 195 201

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