INSEAD Library

Includes bibliographical references

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Global Energy Perspectives Contents Preface Summary Acronyms 1 Introduction 2 An Overview of Scenarios ix xi xvii 1 5 2.1. Commonalities ....................................................................................... 5 2.2. Differences ............................................................................................. 7 3 Global Energy Needs: Past and Present 11 3.1. Two Grand Transitions ......................................................................... 11 3.2. Disparities in Income and Energy Consumption ................................... 14 3.3. Economic and Energy Structures ......................................................... 18 3.4. Energy Intensities ................................................................................ 18 3.5. Recent Developments: 1990 to 1998 .................................................... 20 4 Determinants of Future Energy Systems 23 4.1. Population Growth ............................................................................... 23 4.2. Economic Growth ................................................................................ 29 4.3. Energy Intensity Improvements ............................................................ 35 4.4. Technological Change .......................................................................... 43 4.5. The Resource Base ............................................................................... 50 4.6. Environment ........................................................................................ 57 5 Energy System Alternatives: Six Scenarios 63 5.1. Primary Energy in Three Cases ............................................................ 65 5.2. Overview of Six Scenarios ..................................................................... 68 5.3. Fossil Sources ...................................................................................... 76 5.4. Renewables and Nuclear ...................................................................... 79 5.5. Electricity ............................................................................................ 87 5.6. Final Energy ........................................................................................ 91 6 Implications 97 6.1. Investments and Financing .................................................................. 97 6.2. International Trade ............................................................................ 105 6.3. The Costs of Supplying Energy ........................................................... 109 6.4. Technology ......................................................................................... 113 6.5. Implications for Energy Industries ...................................................... 118 6.6. Environmental Impacts ...................................................................... 124 7 Energy System Alternatives: Eleven Regions 7.1. Introduction and Summary ................................................................ 7.2. North America (NAM) ......................................................................... 7.3. Latin America and the Caribbean (LAM) ............................................. 7.4. Sub+Saharan Africa (AFR) .................................................................. 7.5. Middle East and North Africa (MEA) ................................................... 7.6. Western Europe (WEU) ....................................................................... 7.7. Central and Eastern Europe (EEU) ..................................................... 7.8. Newly Independent States of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) . ............. 7.9. Centrally Planned Asia and China (CPA) ............................................. 7.10. South Asia (SAS) .............................................................................. 7.11. Other Pacific Asia (PAS) .................................................................... 7.12. Pacific OECD (PAO) .......................................................................... 141 141 154 163 169 177 184 193 199 209 220 227 234 8 Conclusion 241 8.1. Why This Study ................................................................................. 241 8.2. New Features ..................................................................................... 242 8.3. The Message ...................................................................................... 244 8.4. Outlook .............................................................................................. 248 8.5. Alternative Images .............................................................................. 249 Appendices References 253 283