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Infrastructure to 2030 Telecom, Land Transport, Water and Electricity Table of Contents Chapter 1. A Cross-sectoral Perspective on the Development of Global Infrastructures to 2030.............................................. 13 by Barrie Stevens, Pierre-Alain Schieb and Michel Andrieu 1. Benefits from infrastructure - past and future............................. 15 2. Driving forces, trends and uncertainties affecting the longer-term outlook for infrastructure investment........................................... 18 3. The outlook for infrastructure investment requirements............. 25 4. Interdependencies and synergies among infrastructures............. 30 5. Cross-cutting issues and policy challenges.................................. 31 6. The road ahead ............................................................................ 48 Bibliography ........................................................................................ 49 Chapter 2. Telecoms Infrastructure to 2030........................................... 51 by Erik Bohlin, Simon Forge and Colin Blackman Executive summary............................................................................ 52 Introduction - the scope of the study................................................ 54 1. Past trends in infrastructure investment..................................... 61 2. Key factors driving future demand and infrastructure investment 70 3. Projected trends in demand for telecoms and investment 4. 5. 6. 7. to 2030......................................................................................... 78 Impacts of key drivers on future investment in infrastructure . . 85 Implications for business models.................................................. 111 Telecommunications substitution and secondary effects.............. 117 Recommendations.......................................................................... 134 Notes ...................................................................................................... 136 Annex 2.A1. Technical Annex: Telecommunications Infrastructure History ............................................................................... 141 List of Abbreviations ............................................................................ 147 Chapter 3. Outlook for Global Investment in Electricity Infrastructure.. 149 by Trevor Morgan Summary........................................................................................... 150 1. Introduction................................................................................. 151 2. Past trends in global electricity supply and investment.............. 152 3. Key factors driving electricity infrastructure investment............ 156 4. Outlook for the electricity supply industry................................... 159 5. Critical uncertainties surrounding the adequacy of investment. 172 6. Implications for industry structure and financing....................... 179 Notes ..................................................................................................... 183 Bibliography ....................................................................................... 184 Chapter 4. Key Factors Driving the Future Demand for Surface Transport Infrastructure and Services ................................... 185 by David Stambrook Executive Summary.......................................................................... 186 The "Road Ahead" ................................................................................. 188 1. Key drivers of future surface transport demand.......................... 189 2. Future requirements for surface transport infrastructure ......... 194 3. Impact of key drivers on future surface transport demand ........ 202 4. Viability of current model for surface transport infrastructure .. 213 5. Conclusions ................................................................................. 215 Notes ..................................................................................................... 217 Bibliography ....................................................................................... 220 Annex 4.A1. Acronyms........................................................................ 223 Annex 4.A2. Data Sources and Model ............................................. 224 Annex 4.A3. Economic Growth Assumptions................................... 230 Annex 4.A4. Road Vehicles and Ownership Forecast....................... 232 Annex 4.A5. Road Use Forecast........................................................ 234 Annex 4.A6. Road Construction Forecast ........................................ 236 Annex 4.A7. Rail Construction Forecast.......................................... 238 Chapter 5. The Impacts of Change on the Long-term Future Demand for Water Sector Infrastructure ............................................... 241 by Richard Ashley and Adrian Cashman 1. Introduction................................................................................. 242 2. Past trends in infrastructure investment.................................... 251 3. Overview of trends in water demand and infrastructure ............ 260 4. Key factors driving future demand and infrastructure investment requirements............................................................ 280 5. Impact of key drivers on future levels of infrastructure investment................................................................................... 292 6. Impact of key drivers on the future quality and structure of water-related infrastructure investment.................................. 301 7. Possible changes for the sustainability of current business models............................................................................................ 309 8. Summary and conclusions..................................................................... 311 Bibliography ..................................................................................................... 315 * Endnote Profile: Past Trends in Selected Countries........................ 323 Annex 5.A1 ........................................................................................................ 348 Members of the Steering Group ....................................................................... 351