INSEAD Library

Includes bibliographical references and index

Digitized

Get There Early Sensing the Future to Compete in the Present Contents Please look inside the book jacket to find the visual forecast map that summarizes the dilemmas described in this book. List of Figures Foreword W. Stanton Smith Stan Smith, a senior partner at Deloitte and Touche, frames the book with a practical futures perspective: how can the study of the future lead to better decisions in the present? He has already employed the ideas in this book in a variety of settings. xi xiii Preface xvii INTRODUCTION Foresight to Insight to Action The Introduction explains what it means to get there early and how doing so can yield advantages--particularly in uncertain times. This book is organized around the Foresight to Insight to Action Cycle. 1 PART 1 FORESIGHT Sensing Provocative Futures Foresight stimulates leaders to develop their own visions and get there early. Part 1 begins to unfold the Foresight to Insight to Action Cycle with a focus on the foresight zone. 13 1 Thinking Ten Years Ahead to Benefit Today Getting there early requires foresight and vision. Chapter 1 gives the context and rationale for ten-year forecasting, as well as a quick overview of how forecasts are done. If you want to go straight to the forecast, skip this chapter. 15 2 Institute for the Future's Ten-Year Forecast 24 Chapter 2 discusses IFTF's forecast for the next decade, which is visualized in the Forecast Map inside the book jacket. This forecast is the content base for the remainder if the book. It is a specific chunk of foresight that leaders can use to stimulate their visions. 3 The VUCA World: Both Danger and Opportunity 45 The Ten-Year Forecast is loaded with Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity (VUCA). Chapter 3 explores examples of VUCA dangers and opportunities in military, health, education, and business settings. 4 What's Different about Dilemmas? 69 The Ten-Year Forecast is laced with dilemmas, many of which look like problems at first, except that they cannot be solved and they don't go away. Chapter 4 introduces the key differences between problems and dilemmas; it lays the groundwork to win with dilemmas and avoid the temptations of certainty. PART 2 INSIGHT Sensemaking to Inspire Strategy How can leaders use foresight--whether or not they agree with it--to gain insight and inspire it in others? Part 2 shows how leaders can use the provocation of foresight, with the help of stories, immersion experiences, and workshops, to create a clear, compelling, and productive strategy. 5 It 85 Takes a Story to Understand a Dilemma Stories are necessary to make sense of the future. Although problems can be described with data and solved with analytics, these methods are not enough to reveal the truths and opportunities embedded in dilemmas. Chapter 5 discusses how stories help leaders figure out what' s going on and what's possible as well as giving them a way to communicate their strategies with clarity. 87 6 Immersion: The Best Way to Learn in the VUCA World 101 The more leaders can immerse themselves in provocative environments, the more they are likely to understand their future options for innovation. Chapter 6 introduces a range of immersion experiences, including simulation and alternate reality gaming, for first-person low-risk learning that is ideally suited to a world of great uncertainty. 7 Sensing and Sensemaking 122 To get there early in the emerging future world, leaders need to tune their own skills in sensing and sensemaking. Chapter 7 shows how small-group workshops can provide powerful input, building on participants' ideas and using foresight to provoke strategic insight. PART 3 ACTION To Get There Early How can leaders create strategy--drawing from foresight and insight-- and bring it into action? Part 3 helps leaders create action plans that have both clear direction and flexibility regarding how to get there. 8 From 141 Insight to Action 143 Chapter 8 gives examples of organizations that have used foresight to inspire new strategies and new actions--in the face of dilemmas--and how they made the link between foresight and insight. 9 Flexing and Flexibility 164 In the world of the near future, winning organizations will be flexibly firm. Chapter 9 discusses how to create an agile organization that knows how to sustain a connective web of shared interests to bridge traditional boundaries. 10 Flexible Firms Chapter 10 gives case examples, as well as a near-future vignette, that illustrate how organizations can be simultaneously flexible and firm, to create a culture of readiness and agility. 184 11 Foresight from Hindsight The best leaders and the best organizations are able to learn from their experiences, especially their failures. Chapter 11 explores ways to derive insight from action, as well as to use action to suggest future explorations. CONCLUSION Making 200 Your Peace with the VUCA World 215 The Conclusion makes use of stories of personal leadership in the VUCA world, as well as hints and hows, to help leaders put the ideas in this book to work. Notes Bibliography Acknowledgments About the Author About IFTF Index 229 237 241 245 246 247