INSEAD Library

Includes bibliographical references and index

Digitized

Uncertain Decisions Bridging Theory and Experiments Contents List of Figures List of Tables Contributors Introduction Part I Non-expected Utility Theory 1 Risk and Uncertainty Aversion with Reference to the Theories of Expected Utility, Rank Dependent Expected Utility, and Choquet Expected Utility Aldo Montesano 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Definitions of Risk Aversion, Comparative Risk Aversion, Aversion to Increasing Risk, and Comparative Aversion to Increasing Risk 1.3 Risk Aversion in the Case of the von Neumann-Morgenstern Expected Utility Theory (EUT) 1.4 Risk Aversion in the Case of the Rank Dependent Expected Utility Theory (RDEUT) 1.5 Definitions of Uncertainty Aversion, Comparative Uncertainty Aversion, Aversion to Increasing Uncertainty, and Comparative Aversion to Increasing Uncertainty 1.6 Uncertainty and Risk Aversion in the Case of the Savage Expected Utility Theory (EUT) 1.7 Uncertainty and Risk Aversion in the Case of the Choquet Expected Utility Theory (CEUT) References xi xiii xiv xix 1 3 3 5 7 12 24 27 27 37 2 Dynamic Consistency and Non-Expected Utility Uzi Segal 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Definitions 2.3 Expected Utility as the Limit of Updated Preferences 2.4 The Reduction Axiom 2.5 Concluding Remarks References 3 Ambiguity-Aversion and Non-Additive Probability: Experimental Evidence, Models and Applications Colin Camerer 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Subjective Expected Utility and the Ellsberg Paradox 3.3 Conceptions of Ambiguity as Missing Information 3.4 Experimental Tests 3.5 Formal Models of Ambiguity 3.6 Applications and Speculations 3.7 Conclusion References Part II Non-expected Utility Applications 4 Consumption, Savings and Asset Returns with Non-Expected Utility Larry G. Epstein 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Intertemporal Utility 4.3 Risk 4.4 Knightian Uncertainty References 5 Estimating (Risk) Preference Functionals Using Experimental Methods John D. Hey 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Experimental Methods 5.3 Estimatible Preference Functionals 5.4 Assumptions about the Data Generating Process 5.5 Estimation Procedures 5.6 Previous Results 5.7 Exploring the Adequacy 5.8 Conclusions References 6 Randomisation, Mixed Strategies and the Reduction Axiom Michele Bernasconi 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Individual Decision Making with Non-linear Preferences 39 41 42 47 49 51 53 53 54 56 56 60 68 72 75 81 83 83 85 93 100 105 109 109 110 114 119 121 122 124 125 127 129 129 130 6.3 6.4 Mixed Strategies with Non-linear Preferences A Concluding Discussion on the General Perceptual Problems when Reduction Fails 135 142 145 147 147 148 151 157 161 163 165 171 175 175 176 178 180 181 183 185 185 186 187 190 194 197 198 201 201 206 211 215 215 216 218 222 224 225 228 229 231 References 7 Experimental Studies of Signaling Games Frans vanWinden 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Game Theory and Experimental Issues 7.3 Equilibria and Refinements 7.4 Comparative Statics 7.5 Subjects Pool Effects 7.6 Adaptive Behavior and Learning 7.7 Concluding Discussion References 8 Independence between Events with Non-additive Probability Nicola Dimitri 8.1 Introduction 8.2 Definitions of Independence and their Implications 8.3 An Alternative Characterization of Independence 8.4 Discussion and Conclusions References Part III New departures from classical decision theory 9 Fuzzy Decision Theory Antoine Billot 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Basics 9.3 The Fuzzy Preference and its Properties 9.4 Fuzzy Utility Function on a Convex Set 9.5 Another Proof for Fuzzy Utility 9.6 Aggregation of Fuzzy Preferences 9.7 Arrovian Dictator and Fuzzy Preferences 9.8 Proof of the Dictator Theorem with Fuzzy Preferences 9.9 Fuzzy Coalitions and Democracy 9.10 Generalized Theorem: Arrow vs May References 10 An Overview of Case-Based Decision Theory Itzhak Gilboa and David Schmeidler 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Behavioral Theories and Cognitive Plausibility 10.3 Decision under Uncertainty 10.4 Epistemological Foundations 10.5 Repeated Choice 10.6 Aspiration Level Adjustment and Optimality 10.7 Planning 10.8 Consumer Theory 10.9 Process-dependent preferences References 11 The Recent Advances in Decision Theory under Uncertainty: a Non-Technical Introduction Alessandro Vercelli 11.1 Introduction 11.2 First-order and Second-order Measures of Uncertainty 11.3 A Taxonomy of Decision Theories 11.4 Decision Theories and Decision Criteria 11.5 The Scope of Hard Uncertainty Decision Theory 11.6 The Puzzle of Awareness 11.7 Time and rationality 11.8 Learning 11.9 Concluding Remarks References Part IV Value to Real World: the Experimental Contribution 12 Decision Theory and Real Decisions: a Research Agenda Kenneth R. MacCrimmon 12.1 Introduction 12.2 Goals as the Primitive Value Concept 12.3 Specification of Constraints and Resources 12.4 Linking Beliefs back to Facts 12.5 Dealing with Ambiguous, Multiple-event Scenarios 12.6 Risk Modification as a Strategy 12.7 Formulating Decision Problems 12.8 Generating Alternatives 12.9 Bounded Rationality of Decision Makers 12.10 Personality, Emotion and Culture 12.11 Dynamics of Decisions: Learning, Adaptation and Evolution 12.12 Conclusions References 13 Policy and the Use of Laboratory Experimental Methodology in Economics Charles R. Plotts 13.1 Introduction 13.2 The concept of an institution 13.3 The creation of simple laboratory auction processes 13.4 Some competing theories 13.5 Results and data 13.6 Philosophy and application of experimental methods: an overview 13.7 A map to the method: the fundamental equation 13.8 Reflections on the issues References 233 237 237 238 242 247 248 249 251 252 253 254 261 263 263 266 269 271 273 275 276 278 280 283 284 285 287 293 293 294 296 299 301 302 307 308 317 14 Buyer and Seller Effect Disentangled. An Experiment on the Microstructure of Demand Claudio Borelli, Alessandro Innocenti and Luigi Luini 14.1 Introduction 14.2 A microstructural approach 14.3 Laboratory procedures 14.4 Descriptive data analysis 14.5 Final remarks References Index 319 319 321 322 324 331 339