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World population to 2300

Corporate author: United Nations Department of Economics and Social Affairs Publisher: United Nations. Department of Economics and Social Affairs, 2004.Language: EnglishDescription: 240 p. : Graphs ; 28 cm.ISBN: 9211514010Type of document: Book
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Item type Current location Collection Call number Status Date due Barcode Item holds
Book Europe Campus
Archives
Print REF580.1 .W68 2004
(Browse shelf)
001232523
Available 001232523
Total holds: 0

Digitized

World Population to 2300 Contents No. Page PREFACE................................................................................................................................................................................ iii EXPLANATORY NOTES............................................................................................................................................................... x PART ONE. REPORT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY........................................................................................................................................................... 1 INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................................................................................... 3 Chapter I. PROJECTIONS TO 2050.................................................................................................................................... 4 A. World population...................................................................................................................................... B. Major areas............................................................................................................................................ C. Assumptions......................................................................................................................................... D. Long-range possibilities........................................................................................................................... 4 4 7 9 II. PROJECTIONS AFTER 2050: LONG-RANGE GROWTH AND DECLINE........................................................ 10 A. Scenarios............................................................................................................................................... B. World population...................................................................................................................................... C. More developed and less developed regions............................................................................................ D. Major areas............................................................................................................................................ E. Africa..................................................................................................................................................................... F. Asia.................................................................................................................................................................. G. Latin America and the Caribbean........................................................................................................ H. Oceania................................................................................................................................................... I. Northern America...................................................................................................................................... J. Europe................................................................................................................................................... 10 12 17 22 28 31 33 34 36 37 III. COUNTRY RANKINGS..................................................................................................................................................... 41 A. Size................................................................................................................................................................... B. Growth....................................................................................................................................................... C. Fertility...................................................................................................................................................... D. Mortality....................................................................................................................................................... 41 41 50 56 IV. POPULATION DENSITY................................................................................................................................................... 62 V. AGEING POPULATIONS.................................................................................................................................................. 66 A. Major areas............................................................................................................................................. B. Historical periods.................................................................................................................................... C. Dependency thresholds........................................................................................................................ D. Countries............................................................................................................................................. 66 70 73 76 VI. CONCLUSION............................................................................................................................................................... 82 A. Consequences....................................................................................................................................... 82 B. Limitations.............................................................................................................................................. 82 C. The long view................................................................................................................................................. 83 REFERENCES................................................................................................................................................................... 85 No. Page PART TWO. ESSAYS I. TOWARDS AN UNDERSTANDING OF THE EMOTIONS IN THE POPULATION OF 2300 Alaka Basu.................................................................................................................................................................... 89 II. AN INTERGENERATIONAL RATIONALE FOR FERTILITY ASSUMPTIONS IN LONG-RANGE WORLD POPULATION PROJECTIONS Herwig Birg.................................................................................................................................................................... 99 III. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE UNITED NATIONS LONG-RANGE POPULATION PROJECTIONS John Caldwell................................................................................................................................ 112 IV. COMPARING LONG-RANGE GLOBAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS WITH HISTORICAL EXPERIENCE Joel Cohen......................................................................................................................................... 123 V. WORLD POPULATION IN 2300: A CENTURY TOO FAR? David Coleman.................................................. 127 VI. POPULATION FUTURES FOR THE NEXT THREE HUNDRED YEARS: SOFT LANDING OR SURPRISES TO COME? Paul Demeny..................................................................................................................................... 137 VII. WHY THE WORLD'S POPULATION WILL PROBABLY BE LESS THAN 9 BILLION IN 2300 Timothy Dyson..................................................................................................................................... 145 VIM REFLECTIONS ON THE NEXT FEW CENTURIES François Héran.............................................................................................................................. 151 IX. THE FUTURE OF HUMAN LIFE EXPECTANCY S. Jay Olshansky....................................................................................................................... 159 X. PROJECTING THE UNKNOWABLE: A PROFESSIONAL EFFORT SURE TO BE MISINTERPRETED Michael Teitelbaum............................................................................................................................. 165 XI. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE UNITED NATIONS LONG-RANGE POPULATION PROJECTIONS: CONTINUING RAPID POPULATION GROWTH Charles F. Westoff............................................................................................................................. 169 XII. FORETELLING THE FUTURE John R. Wilmoth................................................................................................................................... 174

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