INSEAD Library

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OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030 Table of Contents Acronyms and Abbreviations.................................................................................................... 21 Executive Summary................................................................................................................. 23 Introduction: Context and Methodology............................................................................... 35 THE WORLD TO 2030 - THE CONSEQUENCES OF POLICY INACTION I. Drivers of Environmental Change Chapter 1. Consumption, Production and Technology................................................................. 47 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 49 Key trends and projections: consumption and the environment................................. 49 Key trends and projections: production and the environment.................................... 54 Key trends and projections: technology and the environment..................................... 57 Notes .................................................................................................................................. 62 References........................................................................................................................ 62 Chapter 2. Population Dynamics and Demographics ................................................................... 65 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 67 Keys trends and projections......................................................................................... 68 Notes .................................................................................................................................. 73 References........................................................................................................................ 73 Chapter 3. Economic Development....................................................................................... 75 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 77 Key trends and projections........................................................................................... 79 Policy implications........................................................................................................... 86 Notes .................................................................................................................................. 87 References........................................................................................................................ 88 Chapter 4. Globalisation .......................................................................................................................... 89 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 91 Key trends and projections........................................................................................... 95 Policy implications........................................................................................................... 103 Notes .................................................................................................................................. 104 References........................................................................................................................ 104 Chapter 5 . Urbanisation .......................................................................................................................... 107 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 109 Key trends and projections......................................................................................... 110 Policy implications......................................................................................................... 117 Notes ................................................................................................................................ 119 References....................................................................................................................... 119 Chapter 6. Key Variations to the Standard Expectation to 2030.................................... 121 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 123 Key variations in the drivers....................................................................................... 126 Policy implications......................................................................................................... 133 Notes ................................................................................................................................ 134 References....................................................................................................................... 134 II. Impacts of Environmental Change Chapter 7. Climate Change................................................................................................................... 139 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 141 Key trends and projections......................................................................................... 143 Policy implications......................................................................................................... 147 Policy simulations ........................................................................................................ 154 Summary................................................................................................................... 170 Notes ................................................................................................................................ 171 References....................................................................................................................... 173 Chapter 8. Air Pollution........................................................................................................... 177 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 179 Key trends and projections......................................................................................... 182 Policy implications......................................................................................................... 186 Policy simulations: urban air quality.......................................................................... 189 Notes ................................................................................................................................ 193 References....................................................................................................................... 194 Chapter 9. Biodiversity .......................................................................................................................... 197 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 199 Key trends and projections......................................................................................... 200 Policy implications......................................................................................................... 211 Costs of inaction.......................................................................................................... 215 Notes ................................................................................................................................ 215 References....................................................................................................................... 215 Chapter 10. Freshwater........................................................................................................................... 219 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 221 Key trends and projections......................................................................................... 221 Policy implications......................................................................................................... 226 Notes ................................................................................................................................ 231 References....................................................................................................................... 233 Annex 10.A1. Key Assumptions and Uncertainties in the Water Projections............. 235 Chapter 11. Waste and Material Flows................................................................................... 237 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 239 Key trends and projections........................................................................................ 239 Policy implications......................................................................................................... 248 Notes ................................................................................................................................ 250 References...................................................................................................................... 250 Chapter 12. Health and Environment............................................................................................... 253 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 255 Key trends and projections: outdoor air pollution .................................................... 256 Key trends and projections: water supply, sanitation and hygiene ......................... 262 Policy implications......................................................................................................... 266 Notes ................................................................................................................................ 267 References...................................................................................................................... 267 Chapter 13. Cost of Policy Inaction .................................................................................................. 269 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 271 Issues in valuation (key assumptions and uncertainties) ........................................ 273 Selected examples of the costs of inaction ................................................................ 274 Other issues ............................................................................................................ 284 Concluding remarks .................................................................................................. 285 Notes ................................................................................................................................ 286 References...................................................................................................................... 287 POLICY RESPONSES III. Sectoral Developments and Policies Chapter 14. Agriculture........................................................................................................... 295 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 297 Key trends and projections........................................................................................ 298 Policy implications......................................................................................................... 308 Costs of inaction......................................................................................................... 315 Notes ................................................................................................................................ 316 References...................................................................................................................... 316 Annex 14.A1. Biofuels Simulation Results................................................................. 319 Chapter 15. Fisheries and Aquaculture ............................................................................... 323 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 325 Key trends and projections........................................................................................ 329 Policy implications......................................................................................................... 333 Notes ................................................................................................................................ 338 References...................................................................................................................... 339 Chapter 16. Transport .............................................................................................................. 341 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 343 Trends and projections.............................................................................................. 344 Policy implications......................................................................................................... 350 References...................................................................................................................... 354 Chapter 17. Energy.................................................................................................................... 357 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 359 Key trends and projections........................................................................................ 361 Policy implications......................................................................................................... 368 Climate change policy simulations............................................................................. 371 Notes ................................................................................................................................ 374 References...................................................................................................................... 374 Chapter 18. Chemicals........................................................................................................... 377 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 379 Key trends and projections........................................................................................ 380 Policy implications......................................................................................................... 382 Notes ................................................................................................................................ 387 References...................................................................................................................... 387 Chapter 19. Selected Industries......................................................................................... 389 STEEL AND CEMENT.................................................................................................................... 390 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 391 Key trends and projections........................................................................................ 392 Policy simulations ....................................................................................................... 393 PULP AND PAPER........................................................................................................................... 401 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 402 Key trends and projections........................................................................................ 404 Policy implications......................................................................................................... 406 TOURISM.......................................................................................................................................... 409 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 410 Key trends and projections........................................................................................ 411 Policy implications......................................................................................................... 413 MINING.................................................................................................................................................. 418 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 419 Key trends and projections........................................................................................ 420 Policy implications......................................................................................................... 424 Notes ................................................................................................................................ 425 References...................................................................................................................... 426 IV. Putting the Policies Together Chapter 20. Environmental Policy Packages ................................................................................. 431 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 433 Designing and implementing effective mixes of policy instruments ......................... 433 Policy packages to address the key environmental issues of the OECD Outlook . ... 437 Notes ................................................................................................................................ 443 References...................................................................................................................... 443 Chapter 21. Institutions and Approaches for Policy Implementation.......................... 445 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 447 Institutions for policy development and implementation......................................... 447 Political economy of environmental policies............................................................... 453 Notes ................................................................................................................................ 459 References....................................................................................................................... 460 Chapter 22. Global Environmental Co-operation ............................................................. 461 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 463 Delivering better international environmental governance ...................................... 465 Aid for environment in a changing development co-operation context................... 469 The emergence of alternative forms of co-operation.................................................. 473 Notes ................................................................................................................................ 475 References....................................................................................................................... 475 Annex A. Regional Environmental Implications .............................................................. 477 Annex B. Modelling Framework.............................................................................................. 496