INSEAD Library

Includes bibliographical references

Digitized

Uncertainty and Risk Mental, Formal, Experimental Representations Contents Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 1 Part I Foundations Conjectures, Refutations and Discoveries: Incorporating New Knowledge in Models of Belief and Choice Under Uncertainty S. Grant, J. Quiggin ........................................................................................ 9 When an Event Makes a Difference M. Amarante, F. Maccheroni........................................................................... 27 Countable Additivity and the Foundations of Bayesian Statistics J. V. Howard ............................................................................................... 33 On the Quantification and Decomposition of Uncertainty E. Borgonovo, L. Peccati.................................................................................... 41 Part II The Importance of Representational Tools in Understanding Behaviour Under Uncertainty and Risk Preference for Diversification with Similarity Considerations A. Guerdjikova ................................................................................................. 63 Uncertainty Improves the Second-Best H. Haller, S. Mousavi .................................................................................... 85 Lorenz Meets Rating but Misses Valuation E. Camacho-Cuena, C. Seidl ...................................................................... 101 A Deeper Look at Hyperbolic Discounting B. Sopher, A. Sheth......................................................................................... 125 Part III The Assessment of Several Alternative Decision Rules "Take-the-Best" and Other Simple Strategies: Why and When They Work "Well" with Binary Cues R.M. Hogarth, N. Karelaia .............................................................................. 153 On Generalized Secretary Problems J.N. Bearden, R.O. Murphy........................................................................... 187 Voting on Alternatives or on Criteria? The Meta-Decision on Group Decision Procedures N.P. Thomas..................................................................................................... 207 Part IV Models of Risk Attitude Modelling and Methodological Issues Probabilistic Risk Analysis Versus Decision Analysis: Similarities, Differences and Illustrations E. Pate-Cornell.................................................................................................. 223 A Conjoint Measurement Based Rationale for Inducing Preferences H. Grof3mann, M. Brocke, H. Holling............................................................. 243 Active Search for Probability Information and Recall Performance: Is Probability an Outstanding Element in the Mental Representation of Risky Decisions? O.W. Huber........................................................................................................ 261 Evolutionary Analysis of Risk Attitudes in Competitive Bidding Environments Using Simulation J. Sounderpandian .................................................................................. 275 Behavior in Risky Decisions: Focus on Risk Defusing 0. Huber ....................................................................................................... 291