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The Handbook of forecasting: a manager's guide

Author: Makridakis, Spyros ; Wheelwright, Steven C.Publisher: Wiley, 1982.Language: EnglishDescription: 602 p. : Graphs ; 24 cm.ISBN: 0471084352Type of document: BookBibliography/Index: Includes bibliographical references and index and glossary
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Item type Current location Collection Call number Status Date due Barcode Item holds
Book Europe Campus
Main Collection
Print HD30.27 .H36 1982
(Browse shelf)
Available 001214117
Total holds: 0

Includes bibliographical references and index and glossary


The Handbook of Forecasting A Manager's Guide Contents PART 1. ROLE AND APPLICATION OF FORECASTING IN ORGANIZATIONS 1. INTRODUCTION TO MANAGEMENT FORECASTING: STATUS AND NEEDS Spyros Makridakis, Professor, INSEAD, France Steven C. Wheelwright, Associate Professor of Manufacturing Policy Graduate School of Business, Stanford University Perspectives on Forecasting · Implicit-Explicit Forecasting · Intuitive-Formal Forecasting · Forecasting's Time Horizon · Handbook Overview 2. SALES FORECASTING REQUIREMENTS G. David Hughes, Burlington Industries Professor of Business Administration, School of Business Administration, University of North Carolina Management Needs for Sales Forecasts · Deciding What to Forecast · Recognizing Determinants of Sales · Top-down versus Bottom-up Forecasts · Participants in Sales Forecasting · Validating Sales Forecasts 3. FORECASTING REQUIREMENTS FOR OPERATIONS PLANNING AND CONTROL Bayard E. Wynne, Principal and Director of Modeling and Quantitative Technologies, Arthur Andersen and Company David A. Hall, Assistant Professor, Graduate School of Management, Northwestern University A Basic Model · Input Requirements · Outputs · Systems versus Techniques · Managing Forecast Studies 4. CAPACITY PLANNING FORECASTING REQUIREMENTS Steven C. Wheelwright, Associate Professor of Manufacturing Policy Graduate School of Business, Stanford University 37 3 13 25 Capacity Planning Decisions · Tools and Techniques · Examples of Approaches to Capacity Forecasting · Incorporating Learning in Capacity Forecasting · Capacity Forecasting and Business Planning 5. FINANCIAL FORECASTING: REQUIREMENTS AND ISSUES Kenneth S. Lorek, Associate Professor, College of Business, Florida State University Forecasting Earnings · Forecasting Methods · Data Considerations BoxJenkins Models · General Mills Corp.: An Example 6. FORECASTING IN STRATEGIC PLANNING Philippe Lasserre, Associate Professor, INSEAD, France Heinz T. Thanheiser, Professor, INSEAD, France Analytical Tools for Strategic Planning · Industry Analysis · PIMS Analysis · Basic Strategic Modes · Diversified Strategies · Strategic Portfolio Analysis · Forecasting Methods for Strategic Planning 7. FORECASTING: THE ISSUES Robert Fildes, Senior Lecturer in Business Forecasting, Manchester Business School University of Manchester, England A Forecasting Framework · Linking Forecasting and Decision Systems · Cost and Benefits of Improving Forecasting · Selecting a Forecasting Procedure · Organizational Design · Approaches to Forecasting · Evaluating Forecasting Methods · Avoiding Forecasting · The Need for Forecasting 53 69 83 PART 2. APPROACHES TO FORECASTING 8. SMOOTHING METHODS FOR SHORT-TERM PLANNING AND CONTROL A. Dale Flowers, Professor of Operations Management, Weatherhead School of Management, Case Western Reserve University 9. A PRACTICAL OVERVIEW OF ARIMA MODELS FOR TIMES SERIES FORECASTING David J. Pack, Ph.D., Computer Sciences Division, Nuclear Division, Union Carbide Corporation Historical Perspective · Interest Rate Example · Enplanements Example · Philosophy and Structure · Practical Aspects of Application · Forecast Interpretation, Strengths, and Weaknesses · Comparison with Other Time Series Forecasting Approaches · Multiple Series ARIMA Models · Conclusion 10. DECOMPOSITION METHODS FOR MEDIUM-TERM PLANNING AND BUDGETING Bernard E. Majani, Director of Corporation Planning, Aussedat-Rey, France The Classical Decomposition Method · The Census II Method · Trend and Cycle Analysis · Business Forecasting in Practice · Budget Forecasting Applications 153 107 129 11. HIGHER ORDER SMOOTHING METHODS FOR SHORT- AND MEDIUM-RANGE PLANNING James R. Freeland, Associate Professor of Business Administration Colgate Darden Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Virginia Goals, Plans, and Forecasts · Structure of a Time Series Forecasting System · Times Series Approaches for Planning · Winter's Exponential Smoothing · An Application of Time Series Methods in Planning--Carswell Cabinet Co. 173 12. ECONOMETRIC METHODS FOR MANAGERIAL APPLICATIONS Ahmed Aykac, Associate Professor of Economics, INSEAD, France Antonio Borges, Assistant Professor of Economics, INSEAD, France Advantages of Econometric Forecasting · Basics of Econometrics · Time Series versus Cross-Sectional Data · Data Problems · Managerial Uses of Econometrics · Interpretation and Evaluation of Estimates · Structural Analysis · Policy Analysis 13. JUDGMENTAL AND BAYESIAN FORECASTING Samuel E. Bodily, Associate Professor, Colgate Darden Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Virginia Judgmental Probability · Continuous Uncertain Quantities · Revising Probabilities Using Empirical Observations · Families of Probability Distributions · Selected Examples of Applications · Fitting Priors · Bayesian Time Series Models and Econometrics 185 205 14. MONITORING AND ADJUSTING FORECASTS Colin D. Lewis, Professor of Operations Management, Management Centre, University of Aston, England Why Forecasts Go Out of Control · Monitoring Forecasts · Tracking Signals · Adjusting Forecasts That Are Out of Control · Manual and Automatic Adjustment Methods · ABC Analysis 225 15. AN INTEGRATED APPROACH FOR MEDIUM- AND LONG-TERM FORECASTING: THE MARKETING-MIX SYSTEM Rudolf Lewandowski, Vice President, Marketing Systems, Essen, Germany Combining Long-Term and Medium-Term Forecasting Systems · Extrapolative versus Explicative (Causal) Approaches · Methodology for Integrating Approaches · An Application to the German Auto Market · A Generalized Logistic Function 245 PART 3. FORECASTING CHALLENGES 16. FORECASTING AND THE ENVIRONMENT: THE CHALLENGES OF RAPID CHANGE Alan R. Beckenstein, Associate Professor of Business Economics, Colgate Darden Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Virginia Environmental Change--A Perspective · Environmental Factors in Forecasting Aggregation Issues · The Business Cycle · Forecasting Performance and Environmental Change · Adapting the Forecasting System to Environmental Change 17. LIFE-CYCLE FORECASTING Satinder K. Mullick, Director of Economic Planning and Research, Corning Glass Works Gregory S. Anderson, Economic Planning and Research, Corning Glass Works Robert E. Leach, Economic Planning and Research, Corning Glass Works Ward C. Smith, Economic Planning and Research, Corning Glass Works Life Cycle Analysis · Management Needs for Forecasting at Each Stage of the Product Life Cycle · An Example--Television Glass Envelope Demand Forecasting 18. FORECASTING RECESSIONS Robert L. McLaughlin, President, Micrometrics, Inc. The Recession Forecasting Challenge · The Indicator Approach · The Econometric Approach · The Monetarist Approach · The Judgmental Approach · A Five-Phase Timing Model · Indicator Pyramids · Modeling an Average Recession 289 273 259 19. FORECASTING MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES: AN ECLECTIC APPROACH 303 Stephen K. McNees, Vice President and Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Nicholas S. Perna, Manager Economic Analysis, General Electric Company The Need for Macro Forecasts · Alternative Techniques · An Approach for Eclectic Macro Forecasting · Examples: Personal Consumption Expenditures, Housing Starts, Unemployment Rates, Productivity, Labor Compensation, and Prices 20. FORECASTING COUNTRY POLITICAL RISK 325 José de la Torre, Associate Professor of International Business, INSEAD, France David H. Neckar, Political Risk Underwriter, Merrett Syndicates Ltd. Defining Political Risk · The Empirical Studies Approach · The Political Assessments Approach · The Quantitative Models Approach · A Comprehensive Model · Application to a Specific Project 21. ENERGY FORECASTING Guy de Carmoy, Professor Emeritus, INSEAD, France Energy Needs and National Policies · Forecasting Energy Requirements · Balancing Supply and Demand · Appraisal and Applications 22. AN INTEGRATED APPROACH FOR MEDIUM- AND LONG-TERM FORECASTING: THE MARKETING MIX SYSTEM Rudolf Lewandowski, Vice President, Marketing Systems, Essen, Germany Fundamental Concepts · Need for Adaptive Parameter Optimization · Marketing Activity and Short-Term Forecasting · Impact of Special Marketing Actions · An Example: Sales of a French Aperitif · Integrated Treatment of Special Actions 23. ANTICIPATORY ANALYSIS FOR NEW ENTRY STRATEGIES Jean-Claude Larréché, Associate Professor of Marketing, INSEAD, France The Concept of Anticipatory Analysis · A Typology of New Entry Situations · Key Elements in Anticipatory Analysis · Environmental Analysis · Internal Analysis · Market Analysis · Competitive Analysis · Models for New Entries 24. FORECASTING FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS David Weinstein, Associate Professor, INSEAD, France Typical Industrial Products Forecasting Systems · Issues of Concern · A Framework for Analyzing Bias · The Forecasting Manager 25. FORECASTING FOR SERVICE PRODUCTS Vincent A. Mabert, Associate Professor, School of Business, Indiana University Michael J. Showalter, Assistant Professor, Graduate School of Business, University of Wisconsin-Madison The Service Environment · Service Forecasting Requirements · Forecasting Service Products · Long-Range Forecasting · Short-Range Forecasting · Burger Chef FAST System 26. LONG-TERM FORECASTS AND WHY YOU WILL PROBABLY GET IT WRONG William Page, Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex, England Some General Guidelines · Overall Success Rates · Lessons from the Past · Some Recommendations 353 371 387 413 429 449 27. EVALUATION OF FORECASTS 457 Bert M. Steece, Associate Professor of Business Statistics, Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Southern California Relationship of Model Fit to Forecasting · Measures of Forecast Accuracy · Summary Measures · Theil's U Coefficient · The Coefficient of Determination · Model Criticism · Test for Information Content · Other Criterion for Evaluation 28. SELECTING AND USING EXTERNAL DATA SOURCES AND FORECASTING SERVICES TO SUPPORT A FORECASTING STRATEGY Timothy A. Davidson, Director, Software Products, Temple, Barker and Sloane Jeanne L. Ayers, Research Assistant, Temple, Barker and Sloane Historical Perspective · Developing a Forecasting Strategy · Published Forecast Data · Types of Data Sources · Forecasting Service Organizations · References for Most Commonly Used Published Data Sources 469 PART 4. MANAGING THE FORECASTING FUNCTION 29. FORECASTING, PLANNING AND STRATEGY: WHAT NEEDS TO BE FORECAST Charles H. Kappauf, Business Marketing Development, American Telephone and Telegraph J. Robert Talbott, Business Marketing Development, American Telephone and Telegraph Deciding What to Forecast · Three Basic Approaches · Conditions for Worthwhile Forecasts · Specific Forecasts for Go/No-Go Decisions · A Structured Approach for Identifying the Most Important Items to Forecast · Current Practice 30. INTEGRATING FORECASTING AND DECISION MAKING William Remus, Associate Professor, College of Business, University of Hawaii Mark G. Simkin, Professor, College of Business Administration, University of Nevada A Perspective on Forecasting for Decision Making · Some Basic Guidelines for Integrating Forecasting and Decision Making · Application of the Guidelines · Examples from Inventory Control, Personnel Planning, Cash Flow Analysis, Budgeting, Tax Planning, and Resource Allocation 31. ORGANIZATIONAL AND BEHAVIORAL ASPECTS OF FORECASTING Ronald N. Taylor, Associate Professor, Faculty of Commerce and Business Administration, University of British Columbia Perspectives on Bounded Rationality · Bounded Rationality and Cognitive Strain · Guidelines for Coping with Bounded Rationality in Forecasting · Improving Probabilistic Judgments · Stimulating Creativity in Innovative Forecasts · Facilitating Implementation of Plans 503 487 519 32. THE FORECASTING AUDIT J. Scott Armstrong, Associate Professor, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania General Management and Forecasting--An Illustration · Pitfalls in Forecasting · Solutions to Common Pitfalls · A Checklist for Performing a Forecasting Audit 33. THE FUTURE OF FORECASTING Spyros Makridakis, Professor, INSEAD, France Steven C. Wheelwright, Associate Professor of Manufacturing Policy, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University An Historical Perspective on the Field of Forecasting · The Internal Milieu of the Forecaster · The External Environment · Future Changes in the Forecasting Field GLOSSARY OF FORECASTING TERMS INDEX 535 553 563 587

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