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Eliciting decision weights by adapting de Finetti's betting-odds method to prospect theory

Author: Diecidue, Enrico ; Wakker, Peter P. ; Zeelenberg, MarcelINSEAD Area: Decision SciencesIn: Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, vol. 34, no. 3, June 2007 Language: EnglishDescription: p. 179-200.Type of document: INSEAD ArticleNote: Please ask us for this itemAbstract: This paper extends de Finetti's betting-odds method for assessing subjective beliefs to ambiguous events. Thus, a tractable manner for measuring decision weights under ambiguity is obtained. De Finetti's method is so transparent that decision makers can evaluate the relevant tradeoffs in complex situations. The resulting data can easily be analyzed, using nonparametric techniques. Our extension is implemented in an experiment on predicting next-day's performance of the Dow Jones and Nikkei stock indexes, where we test the existence and nature of rank dependence, finding usual patterns. We also find violations of rank dependence.
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This paper extends de Finetti's betting-odds method for assessing subjective beliefs to ambiguous events. Thus, a tractable manner for measuring decision weights under ambiguity is obtained. De Finetti's method is so transparent that decision makers can evaluate the relevant tradeoffs in complex situations. The resulting data can easily be analyzed, using nonparametric techniques. Our extension is implemented in an experiment on predicting next-day's performance of the Dow Jones and Nikkei stock indexes, where we test the existence and nature of rank dependence, finding usual patterns. We also find violations of rank dependence.

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