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The black swan: the impact of the highly improbable

Author: Taleb, Nassim Nicholas Publisher: Random House, 2007.Language: EnglishDescription: 366 p. : Graphs ; 24 cm.ISBN: 1400063515 ; 9780141034591Type of document: BookBibliography/Index: Includes bibliographical references and index and glossary
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Book Asia Campus
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Book Europe Campus
Main Collection
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Book Europe Campus
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Includes bibliographical references and index and glossary

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The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable Contents Prologue On the Plumage of Birds What You Do Not Know Experts and "Empty Suits" Learning to Learn A New Kind of Ingratitude Life Is Very Unusual Plato and the Nerd Too Dull to Write About The Bottom Line Chapters Map xvii xvii xix xx xxi xxii xxiv xxv xxvi xxvii xxviii PART ONE: UMBERTO ECO'S ANTILIBRARY, OR HOW WE SEEK VALIDATION 1 Chapter 1: The Apprenticeship of an Empirical Skeptic Anatomy of a Black Swan On Walking Walks "Paradise" Evaporated The Starred Night History and the Triplet of Opacity Nobody Knows What's Going On History Does Not Crawl, It Jumps 3 3 6 7 7 8 9 10 x CONTENTS Dear Diary: On History Running Backward Education in a Taxicab Clusters Where Is the Show? 3/4 8 Lbs Later The Four-Letter Word of Independence Limousine Philosopher Chapter 2: Yevgenia's Black Swan Chapter 3: The Speculator and the Prostitute The Best (Worst) Advice Beware the Scalable The Advent of Scalability Scalability and Globalization Travels Inside Mediocristan The Strange Country of Extremistan Extremistan and Knowledge Wild and Mild The Tyranny of the Accident Chapter 4: One Thousand and One Days, or How Not to Be a Sucker How to Learn from the Turkey Trained to Be Dull A Black Swan Is Relative to Knowledge A Brief History of the Black Swan Problem Sextus the (Alas) Empirical Algazel The Skeptic, Friend of Religion I Don't Want to Be a Turkey They Want to Live in Mediocristan Chapter 5: Confirmation Shmonfirmationl Zoogles Are Not All Boogies Evidence Negative Empiricism Counting to Three Saw Another Red Mini! 12 14 15 17 18 20 21 23 26 26 28 29 31 32 33 34 35 35 38 40 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 49 51 53 55 56 58 59 CONTENTS xi Not Everything Back to Mediocristan Chapter 6: The Narrative Fallacy On the Causes of My Rejection of Causes Splitting Brains A Little More Dopamine Andrey Nikolayevich's Rule A Better Way to Die Remembrance of Things Not Quite Past The Madman's Narrative Narrative and Therapy To Be Wrong with Infinite Precision Dispassionate Science The Sensational and the Black Swan Black Swan Blindness The Pull of the Sensational The Shortcuts Beware the Brain How to Avert the Narrative Fallacy Chapter 7: Living In the Antechamber of Hope Peer Cruelty Where the Relevant Is the Sensational Nonlinearities Process over Results Human Nature, Happiness, and Lumpy Rewards The Antechamber of Hope Inebriated by Hope The Sweet Trap of Anticipation When You Need the Bastiani Fortress El desierto de los tártaros Bleed or Blowup Chapter 8: Giacomo Casanova's Unfailing Luck: The Problem of Silent Evidence The Story of the Drowned Worshippers The Cemetery of Letters 60 61 62 62 64 67 68 70 70 71 73 74 75 76 77 79 81 82 83 85 86 87 88 89 91 92 92 93 94 94 96 100 100 102 xii CONTENTS How to Become a Millionaire in Ten Steps A Health Club for Rats Vicious Bias More Hidden Applications The Evolution of the Swimmer's Body What You See and What You Don't See Doctors The Teflon-style Protection of Giacomo Casanova "I Am a Risk Taker" I Am a Black Swan: The Anthropic Bias The Cosmetic Because Chapter 9: The Ludic Fallacy, or The Uncertainty of the Nerd Fat Tony Non-Brooklyn John Lunch at Lake Como The Uncertainty of the Nerd Gambling with the Wrong Dice Wrapping Up Part One The Cosmetic Rises to the Surface Distance from Primates 105 107 108 108 109 110 112 112 115 117 119 122 122 123 125 127 129 131 131 132 PART TWO: WE JUST CAN'T PREDICT 135 From Yogi Berra to Henri Poincaré Chapter 10: The Scandal of Prediction On the Vagueness of Catherine's Lover Count Black Swan Blindness Redux Guessing and Predicting Information Is Bad for Knowledge The Expert Problem, or the Tragedy of the Empty Suit What Moves and What Does Not Move How to Have the Last Laugh Events Are Outlandish Herding Like Cattle I Was "Almost" Right Reality? What For? "Other Than That," It Was Okay 136 137 138 141 142 142 145 145 148 149 150 151 154 156 CONTENTS xiii The Beauty of Technology: Excel Spreadsheets The Character of Prediction Errors Don't Cross a River if It Is (on Average) Four Feet Deep Get Another Job At JFK Chapter 11: How to Look for Bird Poop How to Look for Bird Poop Inadvertent Discoveries A Solution Waiting for a Problem Keep Searching How to Predict Your Predictions! The Nth Billiard Ball Third Republic--Style Decorum The Three Body Problem They Still Ignore Hayek How Not to Be a Nerd Academic Libertarianism Prediction and Free Will The Grueness of Emerald That Great Anticipation Machine Chapter 12: Epistemocracy, a Dream Monsieur de Montaigne, Epistemocrat Epistemocracy The Past's Past, and the Past's Future Prediction, Misprediction, and Happiness Helenus and the Reverse Prophecies The Melting Ice Cube Once Again, Incomplete Information What They Call Knowledge Chapter 13: Appelles the Painter, or What Do You Do if You Cannot Predict? Advice Is Cheap, Very Cheap Being a Fool in the Right Places Be Prepared The Idea of Positive Accident Volatility and Risk of Black Swan 158 159 160 163 163 165 165 166 169 170 171 174 174 176 179 181 183 183 185 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 201 201 203 203 203 204 xiv CONTENTS Barbell Strategy "Nobody Knows Anything" The Great Asymmetry 205 206 210 PART THREE: THOSE GRAY SWANS OF EXTREMISTAN 213 Chapter 14: From Mediocristan to Extremistan, and Back The World Is Unfair The Matthew Effect Lingua Franca Ideas and Contagions Nobody Is Safe in Extremistan A Brooklyn Frenchman The Long Tail Naïve Globalization Reversals Away from Extremistan Chapter 15: The Bell Curve, That Great Intellectual Fraud The Gaussian and the Mandelbrotian The Increase in the Decrease The Mandelbrotian What to Remember Inequality Extremistan and the 80/20 Rule Grass and Trees How Coffee Drinking Can Be Safe Love of Certainties How to Cause Catastrophes Quételet's Average Monster Golden Mediocrity God's Error Poincaré to the Rescue Eliminating Unfair Influence "The Greeks Would Have Deified It" "Yes/No" Only Please A (Literary) Thought Experiment on Where the Bell Curve Comes From 215 215 216 218 220 220 221 223 225 227 229 229 231 232 234 234 235 236 237 239 240 240 241 242 243 243 244 244 245 CONTENTS xv Those Comforting Assumptions "The Ubiquity of the Gaussian" Chapter 16: The Aesthetics of Randomness The Poet of Randomness The Platonicity of Triangles The Geometry of Nature Fractality A Visual Approach to Extremistan/Mediocristan Pearls to Swine The Logic of Fractal Randomness (with a Warning) The Problem of the Upper Bound Beware the Precision The Water Puddle Revisited From Representation to Reality Once Again, Beware the Forecasters Once Again, a Happy Solution Where Is the Gray Swan? Chapter 17: Locke's Madmen, or Bell Curves in the Wrong Places Only Fifty Years The Clerks' Betrayal Anyone Can Become President More Horror Confirmation It Was Just a Black Swan How to "Prove" Things Chapter 18: The Uncertainty of the Phony Ludic Fallacy Redux Find the Phony Can Philosophers Be Dangerous to Society? The Problem of Practice How Many Wittgensteins Can Dance on the Head of a Pin? Where Is Popper When You Need Him? The Bishop and the Analyst Easier Than You Think: The Problem of Decision Under Skepticism 250 251 253 2S3 256 256 257 259 260 262 266 266 267 268 270 270 272 274 275 275 277 278 281 281 282 286 286 287 288 289 289 290 291 292 xvi CONTENTS PART FOUR: THE END 293 Chapter 19: Half and Half, or How to Get Even with the Black Swan 295 When Missing a Train Is Painless The End Epilogue: Yevgenia's White Swans Acknowledgments Glossary Notes Bibliography Index 297 297 299 301 307 311 331 359

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