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Decision making with multiattribute performance targets: the impact of changes in performance and target distributions

Author: Tsetlin, Ilia ; Winkler, Robert L.INSEAD Area: Decision SciencesIn: Operations Research, vol. 55, no. 2, March/April 2007 Language: EnglishDescription: p. 226-233.Type of document: INSEAD ArticleNote: Please ask us for this itemAbstract: In many situations, performance on several attributes is important. Moreover, a decision maker's utility may depend not on the absolute level of performance on each attribute, but rather on whether that level of performance meets a target, in which case the decision maker is said to be target oriented. For example, typical attributes in new product development include cost, quality, and features, and the corresponding targets might be the best performance on these attributes by competing products. Targets and performance levels are typically uncertain and are often dependent. We develop a model that allows for uncertain dependent targets and uncertain dependent performance levels, and we study implications for decision making in this general multiattribute target-oriented setting. We consider the impact on expected utility of modifying key characteristics of performance (or target) distributions: location, spread, and degree of dependence. In particular, we show that explicit consideration of dependence is important, and we establish when increasing or decreasing dependence is beneficial. We illustrate the results numerically with a normal model, and we discuss some extensions and implications.
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In many situations, performance on several attributes is important. Moreover, a decision maker's utility may depend not on the absolute level of performance on each attribute, but rather on whether that level of performance meets a target, in which case the decision maker is said to be target oriented. For example, typical attributes in new product development include cost, quality, and features, and the corresponding targets might be the best performance on these attributes by competing products. Targets and performance levels are typically uncertain and are often dependent. We develop a model that allows for uncertain dependent targets and uncertain dependent performance levels, and we study implications for decision making in this general multiattribute target-oriented setting. We consider the impact on expected utility of modifying key characteristics of performance (or target) distributions: location, spread, and degree of dependence. In particular, we show that explicit consideration of dependence is important, and we establish when increasing or decreasing dependence is beneficial. We illustrate the results numerically with a normal model, and we discuss some extensions and implications.

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