INSEAD Library

Includes bibliographical references and index

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European Energy Futures 2030 Technology and Social Visions from the European Energy Delphi Survey Contents Foreword ..................................................................................................... v Acknowledgements.................................................................................... vii Contents ix Authors' Index........................................................................................... xv Summary ................................................................................................. xvii Scope of EurEnDel............................................................................... xvii 19 Technology Trends.........................................................................xviii Three Societal Visions........................................................................ xxiii Assessment of Results......................................................................... xxiv Europe's Energy Future in 2030 -- Three Scenarios.......................... xxvi Conclusions and Policy Recommendations....................................... xxvii 1. 2. 3. 3.1. 3.2. 3.3. 3.4. Introduction...........................................................................1 Outline of the Report............................................................ 3 Methodological Approach of EurEnDel............................. 5 Outline of the project............................................................. 5 Basic Assumptions................................................................. 8 EurEnDel's Search for a Multitude of Futures.......................9 Design of the Delphi Questionnaire.....................................10 x Contents 4. 4.1. 4.2. 4.2.1. 4.2.2. 4.2.3. 4.3. 4.4. 4.4.1. 4.4.2. 4.5. 4.6. 4.6.1. 4.6.2. 5. 5.1. 5.2. 5.3. 5.4. 5.5. 6. 6.1. 6.2. 6.3. Main Survey Results..........................................................15 General remarks.................................................................. 16 Technology Statements....................................................... 19 Time of Occurrence............................................................ 20 Impact Assessment............................................................ 27 Actions Needed................................................................... 31 Wildcards............................................................................ 33 Societal Visions...................................................................36 Major Findings on Technologies and Energy Sources....... 38 Major Findings on Instruments and Innovations................. 41 Country Specific Analysis...................................................43 Quantitative Co-Assessment............................................... 47 Reference Studies................................................................ 47 Comparison of Results......................................................... 48 Comparison of Social and Technological Perspectives......................................................................... 53 Introduction......................................................................... 53 Possible sources of divergences in the evaluation of the statements....................................................................... 54 The "Preferences" of the three Societal Visions for the Technology Statements.................................................. 56 Preferences of the Societal Visions for Technologies and "feasibility gaps"............................................................61 Main Conclusions................................................................65 EurEnDel Scenarios.......................................................... 67 Change of Paradigm............................................................ 69 Fossil Fuel Wars..................................................................75 Muddling Through Across the Gas Bridge......................... 79 Contents xi 6.4. Comments on the Scenarios..................................................... 82 6.4.1. Alternative Pathways................................................................82 6.4.2. Comparison to Quantitative Forecasting.................................. 83 6.4.3. Quantitative CO 2 Emission Classification of the Scenarios.............................................................................. 83 7. 7.1. 7.2. 7.3. 7.3.1. 7.3.2. 7.3.3. 7.3.4. 7.4. 8. 9. 10. 10.1. 10.2. 10.3. 10.4. 11. 11.1. 11.2. 11.3. Policy Recommendations..................................................85 "Safe Bet" and "Conditional" Technologies....................... 86 Comparative Analysis of RandD Priorities........................... 89 In-depth Analysis of Results and Recommendations......... 91 Energy Demand................................................................. 91 Transport............................................................................. 93 Energy Storage and Grids.....................................................94 Energy Supply....................................................................... 98 Conclusions......................................................................... 103 References.......................................................................... 109 Annex A -- Evaluation of former foresight studies.......113 Annex B -- Tables with Results from 1st and 2nd Survey Round..................................................................... 129 Raw Data -- Technological Statements............................. 129 Raw Data -- Wild cards..................................................... 136 Raw Data -- Societal Visions.............................................137 Definition of Terms.............................................................139 Annex C -- Country Specific Analysis............................141 Respondents by Country..................................................... 142 Other Background Variables...............................................144 Time of Occurrence.............................................................147 xii Contents 11.3.1. Country Specific Analysis -- Germany, Spain, Poland...... 147 11.3.2. "Germany, Spain, Poland" vs. "Rest of World".................. 162 11.4. Impact Assessments............................................................166 11.4.1. Country specific analysis -- Germany, Spain, Poland........166 11.4.2. Europe vs. the World........................................................... 169 11.5. 11.6. 12. 12.1. 12.2. 12.3. 13. 13.1. Societal Visions.................................................................. 171 Summary.............................................................................174 Annex D -- Correspondence Factors.............................179 Relations between Societal Visions and Social Impacts.............................................................................. 179 Relations between Policies and Actions.............................180 Relations between Technologies and Statements...............180 Annex E -- Graphs on Delphi results............................183 Impact Assessment...................................................... 183 13.1.1. Impact on Wealth Creation.................................................. 183 13.1.2. Impact on Environment....................................................... 184 13.1.3. Impact on Quality of Life.................................................... 185 13.1.4. Impact on Security of Supply.............................................. 186 13.2. 13.3. 13.4. Actions Needed.................................................................. 187 Wildcards............................................................................190 Societal Visions.................................................................. 192 13.4.1. Vision 1 -- Individual Choice............................................. 192 13.4.2. Vision 2-- Ecological Balance............................................ 192 13.4.3. Vision 3 -- Social Equity.................................................... 193 14. 14.1. 14.2. Annex F -- Description of Societal Visions...................195 Vision I -- Individual Choice............................................ 195 Vision II -- Ecological balance......................................... 196 Contents 14.3. 15. 15.1. 15.2. 15.3. 16. Vision III -- Social equity................................................. 197 Annex G -- Evaluation of Comments............................ 199 Comments on Statements...................................................199 Comments on Wildcards.................................................... 219 Comments on Visions........................................................ 220 Annex H -- Statement list -- short term descriptions. 229 xiii