INSEAD Library

Includes bibliographical references and index and glossary

English

Digitized

The Only Three Questions that Count Investing by Knowing What Other Don't Contents Acknowledgments Foreword Preface Who Am I to Tell You Something That Counts? xix Idiots and Professionals: Oh, but I Repeat Myself xxii Because Mr. Crafty, It's Not a Craft xxvi It's All Latin to Me--Starting to Think like a Scientist xxix The Only Three Questions That Count xxx ix xiii xix 1 Question One: What Do You Believe That Is Actually False? If You Knew It Was Wrong, You Wouldn't Believe It 1 The Mythological Correlation 8 Always Look at It Differently 20 When You Are Really, Really Wrong 27 1 2 Question Two: What Can You Fathom That Others Find Unfathomable? Fathoming the Unfathomable 37 Ignore the Rock in the Bushes 38 37 v vi Contents Discounting the Media Machine and Advanced Fad Avoidance 40 The Shocking Truth about Yield Curves 48 What the Yield Curve Is Trying to Tell You 63 The Presidential Term Cycle 72 3 Question Three: What the Heck Is My Brain Doing to Blindside Me Now? It's Not Your Fault--Blame Evolution 81 Cracking the Stone Age Code--Pride and Regret 87 The Great Humiliator's Favorite Tricks 105 Get Your Head Out of the Cave 107 81 4 Capital Markets Technology Building and Putting Capital Markets Technology into Practice 119 It's Good while It Lasts 122 Forecast with Accuracy, Not like a Professional 128 Better Living through Global Benchmarking 140 119 5 When There's No There, There! Johns Hopkins, My Grampa, Life Lessons, and Pulling a Gertrude 165 In the Center Ring--Oil versus Stocks 171 Sell in May because the January Effect Will Dampen Your Santa Claus Rally Unless There Is a Witching Effect 185 165 6 No, It's Just the Opposite When You Are Wrong--Really, Really, Really Wrong 193 Multiplier Effects and the Heroin-Addicted Apple iPod Borrower 202 Let's Trade This Deficit for That One 213 The New Gold Standard 222 193 Contents vii 7 Shocking but True Supply and Demand ... and That's It 235 Weak Dollar, Strong Dollar--What Does It Matter? 257 235 8 The Great Humiliator and Your Stone-Age Brain That Predictable Market 273 Anatomy of a Bubble 282 Some Basic Bear Rules 293 What Causes a Bear Market? 304 273 9 Putting It All Together Stick with Your Strategy and Stick It to Him 311 Four Rules That Count 324 Finally! How to Pick Stocks That Only Win 343 When the Heck Do You Sell? 352 311 Conclusion Transformationalism 360 359 Appendix A: U.S. Equity Total Returns 1830 to 1925 Appendix B: SandP 500 Composite Returns Appendix C: Simulated Technology Returns Appendix D: Nasdaq Composite Returns Appendix E: U.K. Stock Market Total Returns Appendix F: U.K. Stock Market (FTSE All-Share) Total Returns Appendix G: Germany Stock Market Returns Appendix H: Germany Stock Market (DAX) Total Returns Appendix I: Japan Stock Market Total Returns 367 369 375 377 381 385 389 393 397 viii Contents Appendix j: Japan Stock Market (TOPIX) Total Returns 401 Appendix K: Fisher Investments Global Total Return Performance 405 Appendix L: Ten-Year History of the Forbes Report Card Appendix M: The United Deficits: Data Notes Glossary Index 407 409 411 421 431