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The Chinese economy: transitions and growth

Author: Naughton, Barry Publisher: MIT Press, 2007.Language: EnglishDescription: 528 p. ; 24 cm.ISBN: 0262640643Type of document: BookBibliography/Index: Includes bibliographical references and index
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Book (short loan) Asia Campus
Textbook Collection
Print HC500.42 .C4 N38 2007
(Browse shelf)
900214032
Consultation only 900214032
Book Asia Campus
Main Collection
Print HC500.42 .C4 N38 2007
(Browse shelf)
900176101
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Book Europe Campus
Main Collection
Print HC500.42 .C4 N38 2007
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Includes bibliographical references and index

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The Chinese Economy Transitions and Growth Contents Acknowledgments INTRODUCTION From Transition to Development The Distance Traveled The Dual Transition China's Growth Performance Becoming a "Normal" Country China to the Future Using This Textbook Bibliography LEGACIES AND SETTING 1 The Geographical Setting 1.1 Landforms 1.2 Climate and Water 1.3 Provinces and Regions 1.4 Mineral Resources 1.5 Conclusion: Regional Differentiation Bibliography 2 The Chinese Economy Before 1949 2.1 The Traditional Chinese Economy, 1127-1911 2.1.1 High-Productivity Traditional Agriculture 2.1.2 The Commercialized Countryside 2.1.2.1 Sophisticated Institutions 2.1.2.2 Competitive Markets 2.1.2.3 Small-Scale, "Bottom-Heavy" Economy xv 1 3 4 5 6 8 10 12 13 15 17 18 20 22 28 29 31 33 34 34 36 36 37 37 iv Contents 2.1.3 Crisis of the Traditional Economy? 2.1.4 The Failed Response to the West and Japan 2.2 The Beginnings of Industrialization, 1912-1937 2.2.1 Industry 2.2.2 Evaluation: How Broad Was Development in the 1912-1937 Period? 2.3 War and Civil War, 1937-1949 2.3.1 The Rise and Fall of a Japan-Centered East Asian Economy 2.3.2 The Rise of Manchuria 2.3.3 Increased State Intervention 2.3.4 Inflation 2.4 Legacies of the Pre-1949 Economy 2.4.1 Legacy for the Socialist Era (1949-1978) 2.4.2 Legacy for the Post-1978 Market Economy Bibliography 3 The Socialist Era, 1949-1978: Big Push Industrialization and Policy Instability 3.1 The Big Push Development Strategy 3.2 The Command Economic System in China 3.3 Policy Instability 3.3.1 Economic Recovery, 1949-1952 3.3.2 1953 and 1956: The Twin Peaks of the First Five-Year Plan 3.3.3 Retrenchment: The "Hundred Flowers" of 1956-1957 3.3.4 The Great Leap Forward, 1958-1960 3.3.5 Retrenchment: Crisis and "Readjustment," 1961-1963 3.3.6 Launch of the Third Front, 1964-1966: New Expansion Hijacked by Radicalism 3.3.7 Retrenchment: The Cultural Revolution, 1967-1969 3.3.8 The Maoist Model: A New Leap in 1970 3.3.9 Retrenchment: Consolidation and Drift, 1972-1976 3.3.10 The Leap Outward: 1978 and the End of Maoism 3.3.11 A Final Turning Point: The Third Plenum and the Beginning of Economic Reform 3.4 Legacies of the Socialist Period 3.4.1 The Legacy of Policy Instability 38 40 43 43 45 47 47 48 49 49 50 50 51 53 55 56 59 62 64 65 67 69 72 73 74 75 76 77 79 79 79 v Contents 3.4.2 The Shortcomings of the Development Strategy 3.4.3 Human Capital Base Bibliography 4 Market Transition: Strategy and Process 4.1 The Chinese Approach to Transition 4.2 How Did Reforms Start? The Initial Breakthrough in the Countryside 4.3 A Two-Phase Framework of Economic Reform 4.4 Elements of China's Transition Through 1992 4.4.1 Dual-Track System 4.4.2 Growing Out of the Plan 4.4.3 Particularistic Contracts 4.4.4 Entry 4.4.5 Prices Equating Supply and Demand 4.4.6 Incremental Managerial Reforms Instead of Privatization 4.4.7 Disarticulation 4.4.8 Initial Macroeconomic Stabilization Achieved Through the Plan 4.4.9 Continued High Saving and Investment 4.4.10 Conclusion of First-Phase Reforms 4.5 The Tiananmen Interlude 4.6 The Second Phase of Reform, 1993­Present 4.6.1 Prerequisites 4.6.1.1 Market Reunification 4.6.1.2 Recentralization 4.6.1.3 Macroeconomic Austerity 4.6.2 Regulatory Approach and Administrative Restructuring 4.6.2.1 Fiscal and Tax System 4.6.2.2 Banking and Financial System 4.6.2.3 Corporate Governance 4.6.2.4 External Sector: Membership in the World Trade Organization 4.6.3 Outcomes 4.6.3.1 From Inflation to Price Stability 4.6.3.2 State Enterprise Restructuring and Downsizing 80 82 83 85 86 88 90 91 91 92 94 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 98 100 101 101 101 102 102 103 103 104 104 105 105 105 vi Contents 4.6.3.3 Privatization 4.6.3.4 Reform with Losers 4.7 Contemporary Challenges Bibliography 5 The Urban­Rural Divide 5.1 A Dualistic System: The Division Between Urban and Rural 5.1.1 Origins of the Urban­Rural Divide 5.1.2 The Urban Economic System 5.1.2.1 The Danwei 5.1.2.2 Urban Property Rights 5.1.3 The Rural Economic System 5.1.3.1 Rural Collectives 5.1.3.2 Rural Property Rights 5.1.3.3 "Fuzzy" Property Rights and Land-Use Disputes 5.1.4 The Evolution of the Rural and Urban Systems During Market Transition 5.1.5 Invisible Walls: Administrative Barriers Today 5.2 Urbanization 5.3 Rural­Urban Migration 5.3.1 Overview of Migration 5.3.2 Characteristics of Migrants 5.4 Economic Consequences of the Urban­Rural Divide 5.4.1 Living Standards and Restrictions on Mobility 5.4.2 Addressing the Urban­Rural Divide 5.5 Conclusion Bibliography II 6 PATTERNS OF GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT Growth and Structural Change 6.1 Growth 6.1.1 Data and the Measurement of Growth 6.1.2 Growth in Comparative Perspective 6.1.3 Instability in Growth 6.2 Investment 6.3 Structural Change: Common Patterns 106 106 107 110 113 114 114 116 116 118 119 119 119 121 122 124 126 129 129 131 131 132 134 134 135 137 139 140 140 142 143 143 148 vii Contents 6.4 Structural Change in China: Labor 6.5 Structural Change in China: GDP 6.6 Structural Change and Globalization 6.7 Conclusion Bibliography 7 Population Growth and the One-Child Family 7.1 The Demographic Transition 7.2 China's Demographic Transition 7.3 The Role of Government Policy 7.4 Consequences of the One-Child Policy 7.5 Changing Age Structure of the Population 7.6 Conclusion Bibliography 8 Labor and Human Capital 8.1 The Institutional Transformation of Chinese Labor 8.1.1 The Labor Force 8.1.2 Employment: Ownership and Labor Mobility 8.1.3 Employment, Unemployment, and State-Sector Downsizing 8.1.4 The Informal Sector: Emerging Dualism Within Urban Labor Markets 8.1.5 Rural Labor Markets 8.2 How Well Do Labor Markets Function in China Today? 8.2.1 Returns to Education 8.2.2 Human Capital and Educational Attainment 8.2.3 Other Attributes 8.2.4 The Migration Decision 8.2.5 Labor Markets Concluded 8.3 Social Security 8.4 Conclusion Bibliography 9 Living Standards: Incomes, Inequality, and Poverty 9.1 Income Growth 9.2 Poverty 9.2.1 Rural Poverty 9.2.1.1 Official Poverty Line 151 153 156 157 158 161 161 164 167 170 172 177 177 179 180 180 181 185 189 191 192 192 195 198 199 201 202 206 206 209 210 212 212 212 viii Contents 9.2.1.2 World Bank Internationally Comparable Poverty Line 9.2.1.3 Explaining Poverty Trends 9.2.2 Urban Poverty 9.2.3 Overall Poverty 9.3 Inequality 9.3.1 Accounting for All Income Sources 9.4 Physical Quality of Life Indicators 9.4.1 Life Expectancy at Birth 9.4.2 Other Health-Related Indicators 9.4.3 Education 9.4.4 Human Development Index 9.5 Income, GDP per Capita, and Purchasing Power Parity Once Again 9.6 Conclusion Bibliography III 10 THE RURAL ECONOMY Rural Organization 10.1 The Chinese Village 10.2 Agricultural Collectives 10.2.1 Features of the Agricultural Collectives 10.2.2 Discussion of Collectives 10.2.3 The Agricultural Policy Environment of the Collectives: "Grain First" 10.3 The Second Revolution in the Countryside: Rural Reforms, 1979-1984 10.3.1 Production Surges in the Wake of Rural Organizational Change 10.3.2 The Side-Effect of Reform: Rural Public Services Decline 10.4 The Emergence of Rural Land Markets Bibliography 11 Agriculture: Output, Inputs, and Technology 11.1 Overview of Post-1949 Agriculture 11.2 Technology Choice and Technical Innovation in Agriculture 212 214 216 216 217 220 221 222 222 223 223 225 226 227 229 231 231 233 234 236 239 240 242 243 246 248 251 252 254 ix Contents 11.3 The Green Revolution 11.3.1 Irrigation 11.3.2 Agricultural Chemicals 11.3.3 Seeds 11.4 Motive Power in the Countryside 11.5 Output and Yields: The Challenge of Intensification 11.6 Diversification and the Challenge of the Future 11.7 Genetically Modified Organisms 11.8 Globalization Bibliography 12 Rural Industrialization: Township and Village Enterprises 12.1 Origins of the TVEs 12.2 The Golden Age of TVE Development 12.3 Causes of Rapid Growth 12.4 Diverse Regional Models of TVE Development 12.4.1 The Southern Jiangsu (Sunan) Model 12.4.2 The Wenzhou Model 12.4.3 The Pearl River Delta Model 12.4.4 Failed or Absent TVE Development 12.5 The Transformation of TVEs in the New Century 12.5.1 The Changing Economic Environment of TVEs 12.5.2 TVE Restructuring: The Great Privatization 12.5.2.1 National Policy and Local Models 12.5.2.2 Market Conditions and Privatization 12.5.2.3 Insider Privatization 12.5.2.4 Local Variation in the Privatization Process 12.6 Emergence of New Forms of Rural Industry in the Twenty-First Century Bibliography IV 13 THE URBAN ECONOMY Industry: Ownership and Governance 13.1 Ownership Change: A Diverse Industrial Base 13.1.1 Ownership Change in the First Period of Transition 13.1.2 Ownership Change from 1996 Through the Present 258 258 260 261 263 265 266 267 268 269 271 272 274 275 282 282 283 284 284 285 285 286 288 288 289 291 292 293 295 297 298 299 301 x Contents 13.2 Industrial Finance 13.3 Transforming Corporate Governance in the State Sector 13.3.1 Creating Corporate Governance: Transition A 13.3.2 Creating Corporations: Transition B 13.3.2.1 Corporatization and the Company Law: Objectives and Principles 13.3.2.2 The Chinese System in Practice 13.3.2.3 Typology of Corporate Governance Systems 13.4 Privatization and Hybrid Ownership 13.5 Conclusion Bibliography 14 Structural Change: Industry, Energy, and Infrastructure 14.1 Growth and Structural Change in Manufacturing 14.1.1 Regional Growth Patterns 14.2 Energy 14.2.1 Energy Efficiency of the Economy 14.2.2 The Three Main Energy Sectors 14.2.2.1 Coal 14.2.2.2 Oil and Gas 14.2.2.3 Electric Power 14.2.3 Energy Security, Diversification, and Imports 14.3 Telecommunications 14.4 Common Features: Infrastructure Investment 14.5 Conclusion Bibliography 15 Technology Policy and the Knowledge-based Economy 15.1 Pursuing Critical Technologies: The RandD Effort 15.1.1 The Trajectory of China's Technology Effort 15.1.2 Strategies of RandD Investment 15.1.2.1 Do It Yourself 15.1.2.2 Buy It 15.1.2.3 Bargain for It 15.1.2.4 Seed It 15.1.2.5 Encourage Spin-offs 15.1.2.6 Open Up to Foreign Direct Investment 15.1.2.7 Support Domestic Entrepreneurship 304 308 310 313 314 316 319 323 325 326 329 329 333 333 336 338 338 339 341 341 343 345 347 347 349 351 353 356 356 357 357 358 359 360 360 xi Contents 15.2 Human Capital Resource Base 15.3 The Output of the RandD Effort 15.4 Redefining Government Technology Policy in the Twenty-First Century 15.4.1 Aligning Incentives in Favor of High-Technology Development 15.4.2 Deeper Integration into Global Production Networks 15.5 Conclusion Bibliography V 16 CHINA AND THE WORLD ECONOMY International Trade 16.1 Background 16.2 The Process of Trade Reform 16.2.1 Initial Reform Steps 16.2.2 Liberalizing the Foreign-Trade System 16.3 A Dualist Trade Regime: The Export-Processing System 16.4 Toward an Open Economy 16.4.1 Currency Convertibility 16.4.2 World Trade Organization Membership 16.4.3 Openness Revisited 16.5 Outcomes: Rapid Growth and Structural Change 16.5.1 Exports 16.5.2 Imports 16.5.3 High Technology Trade 16.6 Regional Composition of Trade Within China 16.7 Conclusion Bibliography 17 Foreign Investment 17.1 FDI in the Chinese Economy 17.2 "Zones": The Gradual Liberalization of the Investment Regime 17.3 The Investment Regime Today 17.4 Sources of Investment in China 17.5 The China Circle 361 363 365 366 368 371 372 375 377 379 380 381 382 386 388 388 389 391 392 393 394 394 396 398 399 401 402 406 410 413 416 xii Contents 17.6 FDI in Context 17.6.1 Sectoral Composition of FDI: The WTO Impact 17.6.2 Modes of Capital Inflow 17.7 Conclusion Bibliography VI 18 MACROECONOMICS AND FINANCE Macroeconomic Trends and Cycles 18.1 Trends in National Saving 18.2 The Fiscal System and Fiscal Reform 18.2.1 Reversing Fiscal Erosion 18.2.2 Broadening the Tax Base: Horizontal Equity 18.2.3 Restructuring Central-Local Relations 18.3 The Fiscal System Today 18.3.1 Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations: Principles 18.3.2 Inadequacy of Local Government Revenue in Rural Areas 18.3.3 Extrabudgetary Funds, Levies, and Charges 18.3.4 Abolishing Local Taxes and Stepping Up Transfers 18.3.5 Arbitrary Nature of Transfers 18.4 Fiscal Deficits and Fiscal Policy 18.5 Inflation and Macroeconomic Cycles 18.6 Monetary Policy 18.7 Conclusion Bibliography 19 Financial System 19.1 The Financial System in the Planned Economy and under Reform 19.2 The Banking System 19.2.1 State-Owned Commercial Banks 19.2.2 Joint-Stock Commercial Banks 19.2.3 City Banks 19.2.4 Other Banks 19.2.4.1 Policy Banks 19.2.4.2 Rural Credit Cooperatives 19.2.4.3 The Fringe 419 419 420 422 423 425 427 428 430 433 433 434 436 436 437 438 439 440 441 442 444 445 446 449 451 454 454 456 457 457 457 458 458 xiii Contents 19.2.5 Central Bank and Regulatory Apparatus 19.3 Weakness of the Banking System 19.3.1 Measures to Reduce the Stock of Nonperforming Loans 19.3.2 The "Flow" Problem: Ensuring Good Lending Decisions 19.3.3 Current Bank-Reform Program and Prospects for the Future 19.4 Stock Markets: Learning to Crawl? 19.4.1 Birth of the Market: Raising Funds for the State Sector 19.4.2 Characteristics of the Market 19.4.2.1 Circulating and Noncirculating Shares 19.4.2.2 Low Contestability 19.4.2.3 Rationing of Listing Opportunities 19.4.2.4 Thin Markets 19.4.2.5 Weak Disclosure and Regulation; Multiple Related-Party Transactions 19.4.2.6 Policy-Driven Market 19.4.2.7 Insider Control and Manipulation 19.4.3 Reform Initiatives: Selling Down the State Share: Changing the "Split Share Structure" 19.4.4 Institutional Investors 19.4.5 Comparative Evaluation of China's Stock Market 19.5 Bond Markets 19.6 Other Financial Markets 19.7 Conclusion Bibliography VII 20 CONCLUSION: CHINA'S FUTURE Environmental Quality and the Sustainability of Growth 20.1 Pollution 20.1.1 Air Pollution 20.1.2 Water Pollution 20.1.3 Costs of Pollution 20.1.4 Pollution Control 460 460 462 464 466 467 468 469 469 471 471 471 472 473 473 474 475 476 477 478 478 481 485 487 489 490 491 493 494 xiv Contents 20.2 Sustainability 20.2.1 Broad Impact of Pollution and Global Warming 20.2.2 Sustainability of Land and Water Resources 20.2.2.1 Desertification 20.2.2.2 Forests and Grasslands 20.2.2.3 Water Availability 20.3 Conclusion Bibliography Index 495 495 497 498 499 500 502 503 505

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