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World economic prospects List of Contents and Tables FOREWORD ....................................................................................................................... 1 SECTION 0NE:OVERVIEW AND INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE............................. 3 Possible Events with Serious Consequences for the World Economy .................................................................................................... 6 Growth Prospects in Major Regions ...................................................................................... 7 8 Table 1.1 Growth of GDP Per Capita by Region 1980-2015 .................................. Table 1.2 Industrialised Countries: Macroeconomic Trends and Forecasts 1991-2010.................................................................................................. 9 Table 1.3 Macroeconomic Trends and Forecasts for East and South Asia 10 1991-2010................................................................................................ Table 1.4 Macroeconomic Trends and Forecasts for Latin America 19912010 ......................................................................................................... 11 Table 1.5 Macroeconomic Trends and Forecasts for Eastern Europe and 12 Central Asia 1991-2010 ........................................................................... Table 1.6 Macroeconomic Trends and Forecasts for the Middle East and 13 North Africa 1991-20 10 .......................................................................... Table 1.7 Distribution of GDP by Country and Region 2000 and 20 15 ..................14 Chart 1.2 Comparative Prospects for Growth of Per Capita Income 20002015 ......................................................................................................... 16 Population Shiflts and Demographic Trends........................................................................... 17 18 Table 1.8 Population by Country 2000120051201012015 ......................................... Table 1.9 Urban Population as a Percentage of Total Population by Country 2000-2015................................................................................................ 20 22 Table 1.10 Cities with at Least 5 Million Inhabitants 2000 and 2015 ....................... Table 1.1 1 Growth and Size of Mega-Cities and Agglomerations 1975-2015..........23 Table 1.12 Age Structure of Population by Country 200012015 ................................24 Energy Requirements................................................................................................................... 27 Table 1.13 World Energy Consumption by Region 1990-2020.................................28 Table 1.14 World Oil Consumption by Region 1990-2020....................................... 30 International Rankings ................................................................................................................ 30 32 Table 1.15 Real GDP and Country Rankings 200012015 .......................................... 33 Table 1.16 Per Capita GDP and Country Rankings 200012015 ................................. Chart 1.3 Overall Assessment of Country Prospects............................................. 34 Chart 1.1 ' SECTION TWO: MARKET CONDITIONS AND PROSPECTS IN WESTERN EUROPE AUSTRIA 35 Country Overview........................................................................................................................ 35 Political Stability and Rish ......................................................................................................... 36 Economic Situation and Prospects .............................................................................................. 36 Table 2.1 Austria: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 199937 2003 ......................................................................................................... Evaluation of Market Potential .................................................................................................. 38 Table 2.2 Austria: An Economic Profile 2000120051201012015..............................38 39 Table 2.3 Austria: Major Trading Partners 2001 ..................................................... Table 2.4 Key Demographic Characteristics of Austria 2000-2015 ........................39 ................................................................................................................................................ BELGIUM Country Overview........................................................................................................................ Political Stability and Risks ................................................................................................... Economic Situation and Prospects .............................................................................................. Table 2.5 Belgium: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 1999- ................................................................................................................................................. 40 40 40 41 Continued... Evaluation of Market Potential .................................................................................................. 42 Table 2.6 Belgium: An Economic Profile 2000120051201012015............................43 Table 2.7 Belgium: Major Trading Partners 2001 ................................................... 43 Table 2.8 Key Demographic Characteristics of Belgium 2000-20 15 ...................... 43 DENMARK 44 Country Overview ........................................................................................................................44 Political Stability and Risks ......................................................................................................... 44 Economic Situation and Prospects .............................................................................................. 45 Table 2.9 Denmark: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 1999- ......................................................................................................................................... 46 2003 .................................................................................................... Evaluation ofMarket Potential ................................................................................................... 46 Table 2.10 Denmark: An Economic Profile 2000/20051201012015........................... 47 Table 2.1 1 Denmark: Major Trading Partners 2001 .................................................. 47 Table 2.12 Key Demographic Characteristics of Denmark 2000-2015 ..................... 47 FINLAND Country Overview ........................................................................................................................ Political Stability and Risks ......................................................................................................... Economic Situation and Prospects .............................................................................................. Table 2.13 Finland: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 1 999Evaluation of Market Table 2.14 Table 2.15 Table 2.16 ............................................................................................................................................. 48 48 48 49 50 2003 ......................................................................................................... Potential .............................................................................................. 50 Finland: An Economic Profile 2000120051201012015 ............................. 50 Finland: Major Trading Partners 200 1..................................................... 51 Key Demographic Characteristics of Finland 2000-20 15 ........................51 52 53 53 FRANCE Country Overview.................................................................................................................. Political Stability and Risks ......................................................................................................... Economic Situation and Prospects ........................................................................................ Table 2.17 France: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 1999- ...............................................................................................................................................52 54 2003 ......................................................................................................... Evaluation of Market Potential ................................................................................................... 54 Table 2.18 France: An Economic Profile 2000120051201012015...............................55 Table 2.19 France: Major Trading Partners 2001 ...................................................... 55 Table 2.20 Key Demographic Characteristics of France 2000-2015 ......................... 55 GERMANY Country Overview........................................................................................................................ Political Stability and Risks ......................................................................................................... Economic Situation and Prospects .............................................................................................. Table 2.21 Gennany: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 1999- ................................................................................................................................................56 56 56 57 58 2003 ........................................................................................................ Evaluation of Market Potential ................................................................................................... 58 Table 2.22 Germany: An Economic Profile 2000120051201012015........................... 59 Table 2.23 Germany: Major Trading Partners 2001 .................................................. 59 Table 2.24 Key Demographic Characteristics of Germany 2000-20 15 .....................59 GREECE Country Overview ........................................................................................................................ Political Stability and Risks ................................................................................................... Economic Situation and Prospects .............................................................................................. Table 2.25 Greece: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 1999- ............................................................................................................................................60 60 61 61 62 2003 ......................................................................................................... Evaluation of Market Potential ................................................................................................. 62 Table 2.26 Greece: An Economic Profile 200012005f201012015 .............................. 63 Table 2.27 Greece: Major Trading Partners 200 1...................................................... 63 Table 2.28 Key Demographic Characteristics of Greece 2000-2015 ......................... 63 Continued.. IRELAND 64 Country Overview........................................................................................................................ 64 Political Stability and Risks ......................................................................................................... 65 Economic Situation and Prospects .............................................................................................. 65 Table 2.29 Ireland: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 199966 2003 ...................................................................................................... Evaluation oJ'Market Potential ................................................................................................... 66 Table 2.30 Ireland: An Economic Profile 200012005120 1012015 .............................. 67 Table 2.3 1 Ireland: Major Trading Partners 200 1...................................................... 67 Table 2.32 Key Demographic Characteristics of Ireland 2000-2015.........................67 ................................................................................................................................................ Country Overview................................................................................................................. 68 Political Stability and Risks ......................................................................................................... 69 Economic Situation and Prospects ..............................................................................................69 Table 2.33 Italy: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 1999-2003......70 Evaluation of Market Potential ...................................................................................................70 Table 2.34 Italy: An Economic Profile 2000120051201012015 ..................................71 Table 2.35 Italy: Major Trading Partners 2001.......................................................... 71 Table 2.36 Key Demographic Characteristics of Italy 2000-2015 .............................72 NETHERLANDS 73 Country Overview................................................................................................................... 73 Political Stability and Risks ......................................................................................................... 74 Economic Situation and Prospects .......................................................................................... 74 Table 2.37 Netherlands: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 1999-2003................................................................................................ 75 Evaluation of Market Potential ................................................................................................... 75 Table 2.38 Netherlands: An Economic Profile 2000120051201012015 ...................... 76 Table 2.39 Netherlands: Major Trading Partners 2001 .............................................. 76 Table 2.40 Key Demographic Characteristics of Netherlands 2000-2015 ................. 76 NORWAY 77 Country Overview.................................................................................................................... 77 Political Stability and Risks ......................................................................................................... 78 Economic Situation and Prospects .............................................................................................. 78 Table 2.4 1 Norway: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 19992003 ......................................................................................................... 79 Evaluation of Market Potential ............................................................................................ 79 Table 2.42 Norway: An Economic Profile 200012005120 1012015.............................80 80 Table 2.43 Norway: Major Trading Partners 2001 .................................................... Table 2.44 Key Demographic Characteristics of Norway 2000-2015 ....................... 80 PORTUGAL 81 Country Overview........................................................................................................................ 81 Political Stability and Risks ..................................................................................................... 81 Economic Situation and Prospects .......................................................................................... 82 Table 2.45 Portugal: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 199982 2003 ......................................................................................................... Evaluation of Market Potential ............................................................................................... 83 Table 2.46 Portugal: An Economic Profile 2000120051201012015 ............................83 Table 2.47 Portugal: Major Trading Partners 200 1 ...................................................84 Table 2.48 Key Demographic Characteristicsof Portugal 2000-2015.......................84 SPAIN ........................................................................................................................................ .............................................................................................................................................. ............................................................................................................................................... 85 Country Overview........................................................................................................................ 85 Political Stability and Risks .........................:............................................................................... 86 Economic Situation and Prospects ............................................................................................ 86 Table 2.49 Spain: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 19992003 ....................................................................................................... 87 ................................................................................................................................................. Continued... Evaluation of Market Potential ................................................................................................... 87 Table 2.50 Spain: An Economic Profile 2000120051201012015................................ 88 88 Table 2.5 1 Spain: Major Trading Partners 200 1........................................................ Table 2.52 Key Demographic Characteristics of Spain 2000-2015 ........................... 88 SWEDEN 89 Country Overview.................................................................................................................. 89 Political Stability and Risks ....................................................................................................... 90 Economic Situation and Prospects .............................................................................................. 90 Table 2.53 Sweden: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 19992003 ........................................................................................................ 91 Evaluation of Market Potential ................................................................................................... 92 Table 2.54 Sweden: An Economic Profile 2000120051201012015............................. 92 92 Table 2.55 Sweden: Major Trading Partners 2001 .................................................... Table 2.56 Key Demographic Characteristics of Sweden 2000-2015 .......................93 SWITZERLAND 94 Country Overview................................................................................................................... 94 Political Stability and Risks ......................................................................................................... 94 Economic Situation and Prospects .......................................................................................... 95 Table 2.57 Switzerland: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 96 1999-2003................................................................................................ Evaluation of Market Potential ............................................................................................... 96 Table 2.58 Switzerland: An Economic Profile 2000120051201012015 ......................97 97 Table 2.59 Switzerland: Major Trading Partners 2001 ............................................. Table 2.60 Key Demographic Characteristics of Switzerland 2000-2015 .................97 UK ................................................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................................... Country Overview........................................................................................................................ 98 Political Stability and Risks ......................................................................................................... 99 Economic Situation and Prospects .............................................................................................. 99 Table 2.61 UK: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 1999-2003 ..... 100 Evaluation of Market Potential ................................................................................................. 100 Table 2.62 UK: An Economic Profile 200012005120 1012015................................ 101 Table 2.63 UK: Major Trading Partners 2001 ......................................................... 101 Table 2.64 Key Demographic Characteristics of the UK 2000-2015 ...................... 101 .................................................................................................................................................... 98 SECTION THREE: MARKET CONDITIONS AND PROSPECTS IN EASTERN EUROPE BULGARIA 103 Country Overview...................................................................................................................... 103 Political Stability and Risks ..................................................................................................... 104 Economic Situation and Prospects .......................................................................................... 104 Table 3.1 Bulgaria: Macroeconomic Framework and Targets 2003-2006............. 105 Evaluation of Market Potential ................................................................................................. 105 Table 3.2 Bulgaria: An Economic Profile 200012005120 1012015..................... 105 Table 3.3 Bulgaria: Major Trading Partners 200 1 ................................................. 106 Table 3.4 Key Demographic Characteristics of Bulgaria 2000-2015 ....................106 ............................................................................................................................................. CZECH REPUBLIC 107 Country Overview................................................................................................................. 107 Political Stability and Risks ....................................................................................................... 107 Economic Situation and Prospects .......................................................................................... 108 Table 3.5 Czech Republic: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 1999-2003.............................................................................................109 Evaluation of Market Potential ............................................................................................... 109 Table 3.6 Czech Republic: An Economic Profile 200012005120112015 ................ 110 Table 3.7 Czech Republic: Major Trading Partners 2001 ......................................110 Table 3.8 Key Demographic Characteristics of the Czech Republic 20002015 ..................................................................................................... 110 .................................................................................................................................. Continued... Country Overview..................................................................................................................... 111 Political Stability and Risks ....................................................................................................... 111 Economic Situation and Prospects ............................................................................................ 112 Table 3.9 Hungary: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 1999113 2003 ..................................................................................................... Evaluation of Market Potential ................................................................................................. 113 Table 3.10 Hungary: An Economic Profile 200012005120 1012015 .........................114 Table 3.1 1 Hungary: Major Trading Partners 2001 ................................................. 114 Table 3.12 Key Demographic Characteristics of Hungary 2000-2015 ....................114 POLAND 115 Country Overview..................................................................................................................... 115 Political Stability and Risks ....................................................................................................... 115 Economic Situation and Prospects ...................................................................................... 116 Table 3.13 Poland: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 1999116 2003 ................................................................................................... Evaluation of Market Potential ............................................................................................ 117 Table 3.14 Poland: An Economic Profile 2000120051201012015 ............................ 117 Table 3.15 Poland: Major Trading Partners 2001 ....................................................118 Table 3.16 Key Demographic Characteristics of Poland 2000-20 15 .......................118 ROMANIA 119 Country Overview...................................................................................................................... 119 Political Stability and Risks ....................................................................................................... 120 Economic Situation and Prospects ...................................................................................... 120 Table 3.17 Romania: Macroeconomic Trends and Indicators 1998-2001 ...............121 Evaluation of Market Potential ................................................................................................. 121 Table 3.1 8 Romania: An Economic Profile 200020051201012015 ..........................122 Table 3.19 Romania: Major Trading Partners 2001 ................................................122 Table 3.20 Key Demographic Characteristics of Romania 2000-2015.................... 122 Country Overview................................................................................................................... 123 Political Stability and Risks ....................................................................................................... 124 Economic Situation and Prospects ............................................................................................ 124 Table 3.2 1 Russia: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 1999125 2003 .................................................................................................... Evaluation ofMarket Potential ............................................................................................... 125 Table 3.22 Russia: An Economic Profile 2000120051201012015 .............................126 Table 3.23 Russia: Major Trading Partners 2001 .................................................... 126 Table 3.24 Key Demographic Characteristics of Russia 2000-2015 .......................127 SLOVAKIA 128 Country Overview...................................................................................................................... 128 Political Stability and Risks ....................................................................................................... 128 Economic Situation and Prospects ....................................................................................... 129 Table 3.25 Slovakia: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 1999130 2003 .................................................................................................... Evaluation of Market Potential ................................................................................................. 130 Table 3.26 Slovakia: An Economic Profile 2000120051201012015 .........................131 Table 3.27 Slovakia: Major Trading Partners 2001 ................................................. 131 ........................................................................................................................................... .............................................................................................................................................. ......................................................................................................................................... UKRAINE Country Overview.................................................................................................................. Political Stability and Risks ....................................................................................................... Economic Situation and Prospects ............................................................................................. Table 3.28 Ukraine: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 1999- .............................................................................................................................................132 132 132 133 134 2003 .................................................................................................... Evaluation of Market Potential ............................................................................................... 134 Table 3.29 Ukraine: An Economic Profile 2000120051201012015 ...........................134 Table 3.30 Ukraine: Major Trading Partners 2001 ..................................................135 Table 3.3 1 Key Demographic Characteristics of Ukraine 2000-2015 ..................... 135 Continued... SECTION FOUR: MARKET CONDITIONS AND PROSPECTS IN AUSTRALASIA AUSTRALIA 137 Country Overview.................................................................................................................... 137 Political Stability and Risks ....................................................................................................... 138 Economic Situation and Prospects ............................................................................................139 Table 4.1 Australia: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 1999139 2003 ....................................................................................................... Evaluation of Market Potential ................................................................................................. 140 Table 4.2 Australia: An Economic Profile 2000/2005/201012015 ......................... 140 Table 4.4 Australia: Major Trading Partners 2001 ................................................141 Table 4.5 Key Demographic Characteristics of Australia 2000-2015 ...................141 ........................................................................................................................................ NEWZEALAND Country Overview...................................................................................................................... Political Stability and Risks ....................................................................................................... Economic Situation and Prospects ............................................................................................ Table 4.6 New Zealand: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts ...................................................................................................................................... 142 142 143 143 1999-2003 .............................................................................................143 Evaluation of Market Potential ........................................................................................... 144 Table 4.7 New Zealand: An Economic Profile 2000/2005/2010120 15 ..................145 Table 4.8 New Zealand: Major Trading Partners 2001 .......................................... 145 Table 4.9 Key Demographic Characteristics of New Zealand 2000-2015.............145 SECTION FIVE: MARKET CONDITIONS AND PROSPECTS IN NORTH AMERICA Country Overview.................................................................................................................... 147 Political Stability and Risks .................................................................................................. 148 Economic Situation and Prospects ............................................................................................ 148 Table 5.1 Canada: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Tern Forecasts 1999149 2003 ....................................................................................................... Evaluation of Market Potential .............................................................................................. 149 Table 5.2 Canada: An Economic Profile 2000120051201012015 ...........................150 Table 5.3 Canada: Major Trading Partners 200 1................................................... 150 Table 5.4 Key Demographic Characteristics of Canada 2000-20 15 ......................151 152 Country Overview.................................................................................................................... 152 Political Stability and Risks ....................................................................................................... 152 Economic Situation and Prospects ............................................................................................ 153 Table 5.5 US: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 1999-2003 ...... 154 Evaluation of Market Potential ............................................................................................... 154 Table 5.6 US: An Economic Profile 2000120051201012015 ..................................155 Table 5.7 US: Major Trading Partners 200 1....................................................... 155 Table 5.8 Key Demographic Characteristics of the US 2000-2015 ....................... 156 ................................................................................................................................................... SECTION SIX: MARKET CONDITIONS AND PROSPECTS IN LATIN AMERICA ARGENT~A 157 Country Overview.................................................................................................................. 157 Political Stability and Risks ................................................................................................. 158 Economic Situation and Prospects ............................................................................................ 158 Evaluation of Market Potential ......................................... ............ ...................................... 159 Table 6.1 Argentina: An Economic Profile 200020051201012015......................160 Table 6.2 Argentina: Major Trading Partners 200 1 ...........................................160 Table 6.3 Key Demographic Characteristics of Argentina 2000-2015 ..................160 ........................................................................................................................................... Continued... BRAZIL 161 Country Overview...................................................................................................................... 161 Political Stability and Risks ....................................................................................................... 161 Economic Situation and Prospects ............................................................................................162 Table 6.4 Brazil: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 1999163 2003 ...................................................................................................... Evaluation of Market Potential ........................................................................................... 163 Table 6.5 Brazil: An Economic Profile 200012005120 1012015..............................164 164 Table 6.6 Brazil: Major Trading Partners 200 1 ..................................................... Table 6.7 Key Demographic Characteristics of Brazil 2000-20 15 ........................ 165 CHILE 166 Country Overview................................................................................................................ 166 Political Stabiliw and Risks ................................................................................................... 166 Economic Situation and Prospects ...................................................................................... 167 Table 6.8 Chile: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 19992003 ....................................................................................................... 168 Evaluation of Market Potential ................................................................................................. 168 Table 6.9 Chile: An Economic Profile 2000120051201012015.............................. 169 Table 6.10 Chile: Major Trading Partners 2001 ...................................................... 169 Table 6.1 1 Key Demographic Characteristics of Chile 2000-2015 .........................169 COLOMBIA 170 Country Overview...................................................................................................................... 170 Political Stability and Risks ....................................................................................................... 170 Economic Situation and Prospects ............................................................................................ 171 Evaluation of Market Potential ................................................................................................ 171 Table 6.12 Colombia: An Economic Profile 200012005120 1012015........................172 Table 6.13 Colombia: Major Trading Partners 2001 .............................................172 Table 6.14 Key Demographic Characteristics of Colombia 2000-20 15 .................. 173 MEXICO 174 Country Overview................................................................................................................ 174 Political Stability and Risks ....................................................................................................... 175 Economic Situation and Prospects ............................................................................................ 175 Table 6.15 Mexico: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 1999176 2003 ....................................................................................................... Evaluation of Market Potential ............................................................................................... 177 Table 6.16 Mexico: An Economic Profile 2000120051201012015 ........................... 177 178 Table 6.17 Mexico: Major Trading Partners 200 1 ................................................... Table 6.18 Key Demographic Characteristicsof Mexico 2000-2015 ...................... 178 VENEZUELA 179 Country Overview.................................................................................................................. 179 Political Stability and Risks .................................................................................................... 179 Economic Situation and Prospects ........................................................................................... 180 Evaluation of Market Potential ............................................................................................... 181 Table 6.19 Venezuela: An Economic Profile 200012005120 1012015..................... 181 Table 6.20 Venezuela: Major Trading Partners 200 1 ..............................................182 Table 6.21 Key Demographic Characteristics of Venezuela 2000-20 15 ................. 182 .............................................................................................................................................. ................................................................................................................................................ ............................................................................................................................................ ............................................................................................................................................. ........................................................................................................................................... SECTION SEVEN: MARKET CONDITIONS AND PROSPECTS IN ASIA CHINA Country Overview..................................................... ................................................................. Political Stability and Risks ................................................................................................... Economic Situation and Prospects ............................................................................................ Table 7.1 China: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 1999- ..................................................................................................................................................183 183 184 185 Continued ... Evaluation of Market Potential ................................................................................................. 186 Table 7.2 China: An Economic Profile 2000/20051201012015 .............................. 187 Table 7.3 China: Major Trading Partners 2001 ..................................................... 187 Table 7.4 Key Demographic Characteristics of China 2000-2015.........................187 HONG KONG 190 Country Overview...................................................................................................................... 190 Political Stability and Risks ................................................................................................. 191 Economic Situation and Prospects ....................................................................................... 191 Table 7.5 Hong Kong: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 1999-2003.............................................................................................. 192 Evaluation of Market Potential ................................................................................................. 192 Table 7.6 Hong Kong: An Economic Profile 2000120051201012015.....................193 Table 7.7 Hong Kong, China: Major Trading Partners 2001 .................................193 Table 7.8 Key Demographic Characteristics of Hong Kong 2000-2015 ...............193 INDIA Country Overview...................................................................................................................... 194 Political Stability and Risks ................................................................................................. 195 Economic Situation and Prospects ............................................................................................ 195 Table 7.9 India: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 19992003 ....................................................................................................... 196 Evaluation of Market Potential ............................................................................................ 197 197 Table 7.10 hdia: An Economic Profile 2000/2005/2010/2015............................... Table 7.1 1 India: Major Trading Partners 2001 .......................................................198 Table 7.12 Key Demographic Characteristics of India 2000-2015 ..........................198 .......................................................................................................................................... ................................................................................................................................................. 194 INDONESIA 200 Country Overview...................................................................................................................... 200 Political Stability and Risks ..................................................................................................... 200 Economic Situation and Prospects ............................................................................................ 201 Table 7.13 Indonesia: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 19992003 ................................................................................................... 202 Evaluation of Market Potential ................................................................................................. 202 Table 7.14 Indonesia: An Economic Profile 2000120051201012015........................203 203 Table 7.15 Indonesia: Major Trading Partners 2001 ............................................... Table 7.16 Key Demographic Characteristics of Indonesia 2000-2015 ................... 203 JAPAN 204 Country Overview...................................................................................................................... 204 Political Stability and Risks ....................................................................................................... 205 Economic Situation and Prospects ............................................................................................ 205 Table 7.17 Japan: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-TermForecasts 19992003 ....................................................................................................206 Evaluation of Market Potential ............................................................................................... 206 Table 7.18 Japan: An Economic Profile 2000120051201012015..............................207 Table 7.19 Japan: Major Trading Partners 2001 ...................................................... 207 Table 7.20 Key Demographic Characteristics of Japan 2000-2015 .........................207 ............................................................................................................................................. .............................................................................................................................................. MALAYSIA 208 Country Overview................................................................................................................ 208 Political Stability and Risks....................................................................................................... 209 Economic Situation and Prospects ............................................................................................ 209 Table 7.21 Malaysia: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 1999210 2003 ....................................................................................................... Evaluation of Market Potential ................................................................................................. 210 Table 7.22 Malaysia: An Economic Profile 2000/20051201012015.........................211 Table 7.23 Malaysia: Major Trading Partners 200 1 ................................................ 211 Table 7.24 Key Demographic Characteristics of Malaysia 2000-2015 ...................211 ............................................................................................................................................. Continued ... PHILIPPINES 2 12 Country Overview...................................................................................................................... 212 Political Stability and Risks ...................................................................................................... 213 Economic Situation and Prospects ............................................................................................ 213 Table 7.25 Philippines: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 1999-2003.............................................................................................214 Evaluation of Market Potential .................................................................................................214 Table 7.26 Philippines: An Economic Profile 2000120051201012015......................215 215 Table 7.27 Philippines: Major Trading Partners 200 1 .......................................... Table 7.28 Key Demographic Characteristics of The Philippines 2000-20 15 .........215 SINGAPORE 216 Country Overview...................................................................................................................... 216 Political Stability and Risks ....................................................................................................... 217 Economic Situation and Prospects ............................................................................................217 Table 7.29 Singapore: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 1999-2003.............................................................................................. 218 Evaluation of Market Potential ................................................................................................. 218 Table 7.30 Singapore: An Economic Profile 2000120051201012015 .......................219 Table 7.3 1 Singapore: Major Trading Partners 2001 .............................................. 219 Table 7.32 Key Demographic Characteristics of Singapore 2000-2015 ..................219 SOUTH KOREA 220 Country Overview......................................................................................................................220 Political Stability and Risks ..................................................................................................... 220 Economic Situation and Prospects ............................................................................................ 221 Table 7.33 South Korea: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 1999.2003 .............................................................................................. 222 Evaluation of Market Potential .......................................................................................... 222 Table 7.34 South Korea: An Economic Profile 2000120051201012015 ...................223 223 Table 7.35 South Korea: Major Trading Partners 2001 ........................................... Table 7.36 Key Demographic Characteristics of South Korea 2000-2015 ..............224 TAIWAN 225 Country Overview...................................................................................................................... 225 Political Stability and Risks ....................................................................................................... 226 Economic Situation and Prospects ....................................................................................... 226 Table 7.37 Taiwan: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 19992003 ....................................................................................................... 227 Evaluation of Market Potential ........................................................................................... 227 Table 7.38 Taiwan: An Economic Profile 2000120051201012015 ...........................228 THAILAND 229 Country Overview................................................................................................................. 229 Political Stability and Risks ....................................................................................................... 229 Economic Situation and Prospects ............................................................................................ 230 Table 7.39 Thailand: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 1999231 2003 ....................................................................................................... Evaluation of Market Potential .............................................................................................. 231 232 Table 7.40 Thailand: An Economic Profile 2000120051201012015 ......................... Table 7.4 1 Thailand: Major Trading Partners 200 1.................................................232 Table 7.42 Key Demographic Characteristics of Thailand 2000-2015 ....................232 VIETNAM 233 Country Overview...................................................................................................................... 233 Political Stability and Risks ................................................................................................. 234 Economic Situation and Prospects .... ........................................................................................ 234 Table 7.43 Vietnam: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 19992003 ....................................................................................................... 235 Evaluation of Market Potential ................................................................................................. 235 Table 7.44 Vietnam: An Economic Profile 2000120051201012015..........................236 Table 7.45 Vietnam: Major Trading Partners 2001 .................................................236 Table 7.46 Key Demographic Characteristics of Vietnam 2000-2015 ....................236 ........................................................................................................................................ ........................................................................................................................................ .................................................................................................................................. ............................................................................................................................................ ....................................................................................................................................... ........................................................................................................................................... Continued ... SECTION EIGHT: MARKET CONDITIONS AND PROSPECTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA EGYPT ................................................................................................................................................... 237 Country Overview ...................................................................................................................... 237 Political Stability and R i s k .......................................................................................................238 Economic Situation and Prospects ............................................................................................ 238 Table 8.1 Egypt: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 19992003 ....................................................................................................... 239 Evaluation of Market Potential ........................................................................................... 239 240 Table 8.2 Egypt: An Economic Profile 200012005120 1012015 .............................. 240 Table 8.3 Egypt: Major Trading Partners 200 1 ..................................................... Table 8.4 Key Demographic Characteristics of Egypt 2000-20 15.........................240 ISRAEL 241 Country Overview ...................................................................................................................... 241 Political Stability and R i s k ....................................................................................................... 241 Economic Situation and Prospects ............................................................................................ 242 Evaluation of Market Potential ................................................................................................. 242 243 Table 8.5 Israel: An Economic Profile 200012005120 10/2015............................... Table 8.6 Israel: Major Trading Partners 2001 ......................................................243 Table 8.7 Key Demographic Characteristics of Israel 2000-2015 .........................244 ................................................................................................................................................... MOROCCO 245 Country Overview ...................................................................................................................... 245 Political Stability and R i s k ....................................................................................................... 245 Economic Situation and Prospects ............................................................................................ 246 Table 8.8 Morocco: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Prospects 19992003 ....................................................................................................... 246 Evaluation of Market Potential .................................................................................................247 Table 8.9 Morocco: An Economic Profile 2000120051201012015......................... 247 Table 8.10 Morocco: Major Trading Partners 2001................................................. 248 Table 8.1 1 Key Demographic Characteristics of Morocco 2000-2015 .................... 248 SAUDI ARABLA 249 Country Overview ...................................................................................................................... 249 Political Stability and Risks ....................................................................................................... 250 Economic Situation and Prospects ............................................................................................ 250 Evaluation of Market Potential ................................................................................................. 251 Table 8.12 Saudi Arabia: An Economic Profile 2000120051201012015................... 251 252 Table 8.13 Saudi Arabia: Major Trading Partners 200 1 .......................................... Table 8.14 Key Demographic Characteristics of Saudi Arabia 2000-20 15 .............252 SOUTH AFRICA 253 Country Overview ...................................................................................................................... 253 Political Stability and Risks ....................................................................................................... 253 Economic Situation and Prospects ........................................................................................ 254 Evaluation of Market Potential ............................................................................................... 254 Table 8.15 South Africa: An Economic Profile 2000120051201012015...................255 Table 8.16 South Africa: Major Trading Partners 2001...........................................255 Table 8.17 Key Demographic Characteristicsof South Africa 2000-2015 ..............256 TURKEY ............................................................................................................................................. ....................................................................................................................................... ...................................................................................................................................... 257 Country Overview ...................................................................................................................... 257 Political Stability and Risks ....................................................................................................... 257 Economic Situation and Prospects ............................................................................................ 258 Table 8.18 Turkey: Macroeconomic Trends and Short-Term Forecasts 19992003 ....................................................................................................... 259 Evaluation of Market Potential ........................................................................................... 259 260 Table 8.19 Turkey: An Economic Profile 200012005120 1012015 ............................ Table 8.20 Turkey: Major Trading Partners 2001 ................................................... 260 Table 8.21 Key Demographic Characteristics of Turkey 2000-2015....................... 260 .................................................................................................................................................