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Experts in uncertainty: opinion and subjective probability in science

Author: Cooke, Roger M. Series: Environmental ethics and science policy series Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP) 1991.Language: EnglishDescription: 321 p. ; 24 cm.ISBN: 0195064658Type of document: BookBibliography/Index: Includes bibliographical references and index
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Item type Current location Collection Call number Status Date due Barcode Item holds
Book Europe Campus
Main Collection
Print BJ57 .C66 1991
(Browse shelf)
001179401
Available 001179401
Total holds: 0

Includes bibliographical references and index

Digitized

Experts in Uncertainty Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science Contents Introduction, xi PART I EXPERTS AND OPINIONS 1. Think Tanks and Oracles, 3 Background, 4 The RAND Corporation, 5 Herman Kahn, 6 Scenario analysis, 10 The Delphi method, 12 Conclusions: Toward a methodology for expert opinion, 17 2. Expert Opinion in Practice, 19 The Aerospace sector, 19 Military intelligence, 23 Probabilistic risk analysis, 27 Policy analysis, 41 3. Probabilistic Thinking, 47 Thinking, 47 Representing uncertainty in artificial intelligence, 50 Fuzziness, 59 Conclusion, 61 4. Heuristics and Biases, 63 Availability, 64 Anchoring, 65 Representativeness, 66 Control, 68 The base rate fallacy, 69 Overconfidence and calibration, 72 Conclusion, 78 5. Building rational consensus, 80 Rational consensus, 80 Principles, 81 Conclusion, 84 PART II SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY 6. Savage's Normative Decision Theory, 87 The decision model, 88 The representation theorem, 91 Observation, 95 Supplement, 98 7. Relative Frequencies and Exchangeability, 108 The frequentist account of learning by experience, 109 Expected frequency, 110 Exchangeability, 110 De Finetti's finite representation theorem, 113 Supplement, 115 8. Elicitation and Scoring, 121 Elicitation, 122 Scoring, 125 Methodological problems, 133 Practical guidelines, 134 9. Scoring Rules for Evaluating and Weighing Assessments, 136 Improper scoring rules, 137 Scoring rules for individual variables, 138 Proper scoring rules for average probabilities, 141 Asymptotic properties, 145 A menu of weights, 147 Heuristics of weighing, 151 Supplement, 152 10. Two Experiments with Calibration and Entropy, 158 Calibration and knowledge; brief review of the literature, 158 The mechanical engineer experiment, 159 The managers experiment, 164 Conclusion, 168 PART III COMBINING EXPERT OPINIONS 11. Combining Expert Opinions; Review of the Literature, 171 Weighted combinations of probabilities, 171 Bayesian combinations, 176 Psychological scaling, 184 Conclusion, 186 12. The Classical Model, 187 Notation and definitions, 188 Basic model; uncertain events, 188 Basic model; continuous variables, 190 Variations and enhancements, 192 Issues, 194 Measuring and optimizing performance; virtual weights, 195 Correlation, 196 Conclusions, 197 13. The Bayesian Model, 199 Basic theory, 200 Notations and definitions, 201 The Mendel-Sheridan model; assumptions, 202 Evaluation of model performance via bilinear loss functions, 206 A partially exchangeable Bayesian model, 207 Conclusions, 210 14. Psychological Scaling Models: Paired Comparisons, 211 Generic issues, 211 Significant preference for one expert, 212 Significant preference for the set of experts, 213 The Thurstone model, 214 The Bradley-Terry model, 217 The negative exponential lifetime model, 219 Relation to principles for expert opinion in science, 220 15. Applications, 221 Applications of the classical model, 221 The Royal Dutch Meteorological study, 227 Bayesian analysis, 230 Flange connections at a process plant­paired comparisons, 237 Flange connections at a process plant­the classical model, 241 Supplement, 246 16. Conclusions, 268 Part I, 268 Part II, 269 Part III, 270 Appendix A. Mathematical Framework and Interpretation, 273 Mathematical framework, 273 Interpretation, 276 Conditional probability, independence, Bayes' theorem, 278 Expectation, moments, moment convergence, 279 Distributions, 280 Entropy, information, relative information, 282 Appendix B. Standard normal, inverse normal, Chi square, coefficient of agreement, coefficient of concordance, 285 References, 299 Author Index, 315 Subject Index, 319

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