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Estimating the response effect of future events based on historical analogy: a methodology and illustration on genetic substitution of brand name drug sales following patent expiration

Author: Vanhonacker, Wilfried R. ; Price, LydiaINSEAD Area: MarketingIn: Marketing Letters, vol. 6, 1995 Language: EnglishDescription: p. 73-85.Type of document: INSEAD ArticleNote: Please ask us for this itemAbstract: Managerial decisions often are made with considerable uncertainty about their possible effects. In assessing such problems, we often rely in an ad hoc fashion on analogous situations in the hope that they will shed light on the possible outcomes. This paper introduces a formal methodology for transferring information or data from one situation to another. A simple recursive least-squares approach to the Bayesian data transferability problem is discussed. Focus in on the method's applicability to commonly encountered marketing problems. Empirical testing and estimation issues are discussed and illustrated in the framework of generic substitution of brand-name drug sales following patent expiration
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INSEAD Article Europe Campus
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Managerial decisions often are made with considerable uncertainty about their possible effects. In assessing such problems, we often rely in an ad hoc fashion on analogous situations in the hope that they will shed light on the possible outcomes. This paper introduces a formal methodology for transferring information or data from one situation to another. A simple recursive least-squares approach to the Bayesian data transferability problem is discussed. Focus in on the method's applicability to commonly encountered marketing problems. Empirical testing and estimation issues are discussed and illustrated in the framework of generic substitution of brand-name drug sales following patent expiration

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