Normal view MARC view

Forecasting: its role and value for long-term planning and strategy

Author: Makridakis, Spyros INSEAD Area: Technology and Operations Management Series: Working Paper ; 94/27/TM Publisher: Fontainebleau : INSEAD, 1994.Language: EnglishDescription: 28 p.Type of document: INSEAD Working Paper Online Access: Click here Abstract: The most important lesson we have learned in the field of forecasting over the last two decades is that models which best fit avaible data are not necessarily the most accurate ones in predicting beyond this data. In this paper I show that such a lesson has serious implications for other areas and notably management which is still based on the notion that future success can be attained by imitating "excellent" companies or the equivalent of model fitting. In this paper I demonstrate that future success can only be achieved by correctly recognizing emerging changes in the business environment and accurately predicting future ones. Recognizing and predicting such changes brings forecasting to the forefront of management and ironically turns its biggest weakness (the fact that the best model fit does not guarantee the most accurate post-sample forecasts) into a much needed strength as recognizing and predicting changes is becoming one of the most critical factors for formulating corporate strategies..
Tags: No tags from this library for this title. Add tag(s)
Log in to add tags.
Item type Current location Collection Call number Status Date due
INSEAD Working Paper Digital Library
PDF Available

The most important lesson we have learned in the field of forecasting over the last two decades is that models which best fit avaible data are not necessarily the most accurate ones in predicting beyond this data. In this paper I show that such a lesson has serious implications for other areas and notably management which is still based on the notion that future success can be attained by imitating "excellent" companies or the equivalent of model fitting. In this paper I demonstrate that future success can only be achieved by correctly recognizing emerging changes in the business environment and accurately predicting future ones. Recognizing and predicting such changes brings forecasting to the forefront of management and ironically turns its biggest weakness (the fact that the best model fit does not guarantee the most accurate post-sample forecasts) into a much needed strength as recognizing and predicting changes is becoming one of the most critical factors for formulating corporate strategies..

Digitized

There are no comments for this item.

Log in to your account to post a comment.
Koha 3.18 - INSEAD Library Catalogue
Library Home | Contact Us | What's Koha?