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Forecasting accuracy and system complexity

Author: Makridakis, Spyros INSEAD Area: Technology and Operations Management Series: Working Paper ; 94/06/TM Publisher: Fontainebleau : INSEAD, 1994.Language: EnglishDescription: 23 p.Type of document: INSEAD Working Paper Online Access: Click here Abstract: The purpose of this article is to briefly survey the literature of empirical studies related to the forecasting of economic and business series outline their major conclusions. Consequently the reasons for such conclusions are examined and their relation to system complexity is discussed. Finally, suggestions are made about the most rational way of dealing with forecasting of future events and the resulting uncertainty of having to predict the outcome of large, complex systems such as those involving the economy and business firms, which are chaotic in the short term but stable in the long run
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The purpose of this article is to briefly survey the literature of empirical studies related to the forecasting of economic and business series outline their major conclusions. Consequently the reasons for such conclusions are examined and their relation to system complexity is discussed. Finally, suggestions are made about the most rational way of dealing with forecasting of future events and the resulting uncertainty of having to predict the outcome of large, complex systems such as those involving the economy and business firms, which are chaotic in the short term but stable in the long run

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