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Technological forecasting and long-range planning

Author: Ayres, Robert U. INSEAD Area: Economics and Political SciencePublisher: McGraw-Hill, 1969.Language: EnglishDescription: xv, 237 p. ; 24 cm.Type of document: INSEAD BookBibliography/Index: Includes bibliographical references
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Item type Current location Collection Call number Status Date due
INSEAD Book Doriot Library
Main Collection
Print T174 .A9
(Browse shelf)
000144943
Available

Includes bibliographical references

Digitized

CONTENTS Preface v Glossary xi chapter 1 INTRODUCTION AND HISTORICAL BACKGROUND REFERENCES 14 1 chapter 2 FAILURES OF TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING 18 REFERENCES 27 chapter 3 EPISTEMOLOGY OF FORECASTING 29 Technological Change 29 Types of Forecasts 34 Exploratory Projections (Possible Futures) 35 Target Projections 38 vii Validity Criteria 40 REFERENCES 44 chapter 4 CONTEXT: DIMENSIONS OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE Intellectual-philosophical-cultural Factors 49 Political-international Factors 50 Military and Strategic Postures 53 Macroeconomics 56 Microeconomics 59 Communications and Social Feedback 64 Technological Diffusion and Innovation 68 REFERENCES 70 chapter 5 MORPHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS 72 Analysis of Functional Capabilities 72 Morphological Analysis of "Future Worlds" 85 Network Methods 86 REFERENCES 92 chapter 6 EXTRAPOLATION OF TRENDS 94 Curve Fitting 94 Envelopes, Constraints., and Scales 99 Intensive Microvariables 106 Extensive Macrovariables 106 The Inertia of Trend Curves 109 REFERENCES 116 chapter 7 HEURISTIC FORECASTS Extrapolation of Dependent Variables 118 Projection of Constrained Variables 121 Analogies, Metaphors, and Structural Models 122 Controlled Fusion Power 125 Phenomenological Models 128 Operational Models and Simulation 138 REFERENCES 141 chapter 8 INTUITIVE METHODS OF FORECASTING Forecasting by Experts 143 Structured Man-Man Interactions 145 143 118 46 ix contents Structured Man-Machine Interactions 156 REFERENCES 158 chapter 9 POLICY AND STRATEGIC PLANNING Planning as Teleological or Normative Forecasting 160 Policy-planning Methods 164 Strategic Planning Methods 168 Cost-effectiveness 174 The Planning-Programming-Budgeting System (PPBS) 178 Demand-oriented Planning 179 REFERENCES 182 160 chapter 10 PLANNING AT THE TACTICAL OR OPERATIONAL LEVEL 184 Measures of Utility 184 Operations Analysis and Systems Analysis 191 Forecasting Errors and the Planning Loop 198 REFERENCES 201' chapter 11 PLANNING FUTURE RESEARCH 203 Pure (Undirected) versus Applied (Directed) Research 203 Measures of Value 207 Systematic Methods for Planning Basic Research 212 Relating Scientific Research to Technological Objectives 218 REFERENCES 225 Index 227

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