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The M2-competition: a budget related empirical forecasting study

Author: Makridakis, Spyros ; Chatfield, Chris ; Lawrence, Michael ; Hibon, Michèle ; Mills, Terence C. ; Ord, Keith ; Simmons, LeRoy FINSEAD Area: Technology and Operations Management Series: Working Paper ; 92/13/TM Publisher: Fontainebleau : INSEAD, 1992.Language: EnglishDescription: 15 p.Type of document: INSEAD Working Paper Online Access: Click here Abstract: The purpose of the M2-competition is to determine the post sample accuracy of various forecasting methods. It is an empirical study organized in such a way as to avoid the major criticism of the M-competition, namely that forecasters can use additional information to improve the predictive accuracy of quantitative methods. Such information might involve inside knowledge (eg. a machine breakdown, a forthcoming strike in a major competitor, a steep price increase, etc...), be related to the expected state of the industry or economy that might affect the product(s) involved, or be the outcome of a careful study of the historical data and special care in the procedure/methods employed while forecasting. The M2-competition consisted of distributing 29 actual series (23 of these series came from four companies and six were of macroeconomic nature) to six forecasters. The data covered information including the September figures of the year involved
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The purpose of the M2-competition is to determine the post sample accuracy of various forecasting methods. It is an empirical study organized in such a way as to avoid the major criticism of the M-competition, namely that forecasters can use additional information to improve the predictive accuracy of quantitative methods. Such information might involve inside knowledge (eg. a machine breakdown, a forthcoming strike in a major competitor, a steep price increase, etc...), be related to the expected state of the industry or economy that might affect the product(s) involved, or be the outcome of a careful study of the historical data and special care in the procedure/methods employed while forecasting. The M2-competition consisted of distributing 29 actual series (23 of these series came from four companies and six were of macroeconomic nature) to six forecasters. The data covered information including the September figures of the year involved

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