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Managerial decision rules and the estimation of dynamic sales response models

Author: Vanhonacker, Wilfried R. INSEAD Area: Marketing Series: Working Paper ; 90/18/MKT Publisher: Fontainebleau : INSEAD, 1990.Language: EnglishDescription: 26 p.Type of document: INSEAD Working Paper Online Access: Click here Abstract: It is well established that aggregated time-series data provide biased estimates of carryover or inertia effects in dynamic response models. The origin of the bias is a misspecification due to missing micro series. Recent work in the advertisig-sales response literature suggests using the underlying advertising decision rule to interpolate the micro series. This incorporation results in reasonable estimates of advertising carryover. This paper shows that as long as the rules are deterministic, consistent estimates of carryover (or inertia) can be obtained without knowing that managerial decision rule on specified predictors (even strategically coherent rules across predictors)
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It is well established that aggregated time-series data provide biased estimates of carryover or inertia effects in dynamic response models. The origin of the bias is a misspecification due to missing micro series. Recent work in the advertisig-sales response literature suggests using the underlying advertising decision rule to interpolate the micro series. This incorporation results in reasonable estimates of advertising carryover. This paper shows that as long as the rules are deterministic, consistent estimates of carryover (or inertia) can be obtained without knowing that managerial decision rule on specified predictors (even strategically coherent rules across predictors)

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