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Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases

Author: Kahneman, Daniel ; Slovic, Paul ; Tversky, AmosPublisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP) 1982.Language: EnglishDescription: xiii, 555 p. ; 24 cm.ISBN: 0521284147Type of document: BookBibliography/Index: Includes bibliographical references and index
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Item type Current location Collection Call number Status Date due
Book Doriot Library
Main Collection
Print BF441 .K34 1982
(Browse shelf)
Book Tanoto Library
Textbook Collection (PhD)
Print BF441 .K34 1982
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Includes bibliographical references and index


Contents List of contributors Preface Part I: Introduction 1 Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman Part II: Representativeness 2 Belief in the law of small numbers Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman 3 Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky 4 On the psychology of prediction Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky 5 Studies of representativeness Maya Bar-Hillel 6 Judgments of and by representativeness Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman Part III: Causality and attribution 7 Popular induction: Information is not necessarily informative Richard E. Nisbett, Eugene Borgida, Rick Crandall, and Harvey Reed 8 Causal schemas in judgments under uncertainty Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman page viii xi 23 32 48 69 84 101 117 vi Contents 129 9 Shortcomings in the attribution process: On the origins and maintenance of erroneous social assessments Lee Ross and Craig A. Anderson 10 Evidential impact of base rates Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman Part IV: Availability 11 Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman 12 Egocentric biases in availability and attribution Michael Ross and Fiore Sicoly 13 The availability bias in social perception and interaction Shelley E. Taylor 14 The simulation heuristic Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky Part V: Covariation and control 15 Informal Covariation assessment: Data-based versus theory-based judgments Dennis L. Jennings, Teresa M. Amabile, and Lee Ross 16 The illusion of control Ellen J. Langer 17 Test results are what you think they are Loren J. Chapman and Jean Chapman 18 Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine: Problems and opportunities David M. Eddy 19 Learning from experience and suboptimal rules in decision making Hillel J. Einhorn Part VI: Overconfidence 20 Overconfidence in case-study judgments Stuart Oskamp 21 A progress report on the training of probability assessors Marc Alpert and Howard Raiffa 22 Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980 Sarah Lichtenstein, Baruch Fischhoff, and Lawrence D. Phillips 23 For those condemned to study the past: Heuristics and biases in hindsight Baruch Fischhoff 163 179 190 201 211 231 239 249 268 287 294 306 335 Contents vii Part VII: Multistage evaluation 24 Evaluation of compound probabilities in sequential choice John Cohen, E. I. Chesnick, and D. Haran 25 conservatism in human information processing Ward Edwards 26 The best-guess hypothesis in multistage inference Charles F. Gettys, Clinton Kelly III, and Cameron R. Peterson 27 Inferences of personal characteristics on the basis of information retrieved from one's memory Yaacov Trope Part VIII: Corrective procedures 28 The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making Robyn M. Dawes 29 The vitality of mythical numbers Max Singer 30 Intuitive prediction: Biases and corrective procedures Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky 31 Debiasing Baruch Fischhoff 32 Improving inductive inference Richard E. Nisbett, David H. Krantz, Christopher Jepson, and Geoffrey T. Fong Part IX: Risk perception 33 Facts versus fears: Understanding perceived risk Paul Slovic, Baruch Fischhoff, and Sarah Lichtenstein Part X: Postscript 34 On the study of statistical intuitions Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky 35 Variants of uncertainty Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky References Index 521 553 463 378 422

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