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Forecasting: its role and value for planning and strategy

Author: Makridakis, Spyros INSEAD Area: Technology and Operations ManagementIn: International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 12, 1996 Language: EnglishDescription: p. 513-537.Type of document: INSEAD ArticleNote: Please ask the Library for this articleAbstract: Long-term predictions are indispensable for planning and strategy. Yet little is known about their value, their limitations or the most appropriate way of making and using them. We examine these issues and propose two approaches to long-term forecasting while illustrating their use to planning and strategy. 1- Identifying and extrapolating critical long-term trends while assessing their impact on society and firms. 2- Studying the analogy of the industrial and information revolutions and the specific consequences of the industrial revolution's five most important inventions in terms of the consequences of similar ones of the information revolution. We conclude by advocating that much needs to be done to integrate forecasting, and long-term planning and strategy. The purpose of such integration is to increase the ability of organizations to anticipate forthcoming changes, and their consequences, and adapt themselves to these changes as well as the opportunities and dangers associated with them
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Long-term predictions are indispensable for planning and strategy. Yet little is known about their value, their limitations or the most appropriate way of making and using them. We examine these issues and propose two approaches to long-term forecasting while illustrating their use to planning and strategy. 1- Identifying and extrapolating critical long-term trends while assessing their impact on society and firms. 2- Studying the analogy of the industrial and information revolutions and the specific consequences of the industrial revolution's five most important inventions in terms of the consequences of similar ones of the information revolution. We conclude by advocating that much needs to be done to integrate forecasting, and long-term planning and strategy. The purpose of such integration is to increase the ability of organizations to anticipate forthcoming changes, and their consequences, and adapt themselves to these changes as well as the opportunities and dangers associated with them

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