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Forecasting accuracy and system complexity

Author: Makridakis, Spyros INSEAD Area: Technology and Operations ManagementIn: Recherche Opérationnelle, vol. 29, no. 3, 1995 Language: EnglishDescription: p.259-283.Type of document: INSEAD ArticleNote: Please ask the Library for this articleAbstract: Accurate forecasts are essential for a great number of applications yet large errors and considerable uncertainty characterize most of our attempts for predicting the future. This article surveys empirical studies on forecasting accuracy, summarizing their conclusions and examining the implications involved. It then discusses the effects of system complexity on forcasting accuracy and the related uncertainty while predicting future events. Finally, it provides suggestions for forecasting as accurately and realistically as possible when large and complex systems are involved
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INSEAD Article Doriot Library
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Accurate forecasts are essential for a great number of applications yet large errors and considerable uncertainty characterize most of our attempts for predicting the future. This article surveys empirical studies on forecasting accuracy, summarizing their conclusions and examining the implications involved. It then discusses the effects of system complexity on forcasting accuracy and the related uncertainty while predicting future events. Finally, it provides suggestions for forecasting as accurately and realistically as possible when large and complex systems are involved

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