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Forecasting in the 21st century

Author: Makridakis, Spyros INSEAD Area: Technology and Operations ManagementIn: International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 7, no. 2, 1991 Language: EnglishDescription: p. 123-126.Type of document: INSEAD ArticleNote: Please ask the Library for this articleAbstract: This paper reviews the theoretical and practical accomplishments of forecasting as well as the empirical evidence that has been accumulated concerning its accuracy and usefulness/relevance. Furthermore, it discusses the most common mistakes and the biggest misconceptions concerning forecasting. Based on such a review/discussion the need for changes in the theory and practice of forecasting is identified and suggestions made in order to benefit as much as possible from present knowledge while avoiding the major mistakes made in the past. The paper concludes with the presentation of a theoretical framework and a "utilisation guide" necessary if forecasting is to become useful and relevant to real-life, future-orientated decision making
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INSEAD Article Doriot Library
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This paper reviews the theoretical and practical accomplishments of forecasting as well as the empirical evidence that has been accumulated concerning its accuracy and usefulness/relevance. Furthermore, it discusses the most common mistakes and the biggest misconceptions concerning forecasting. Based on such a review/discussion the need for changes in the theory and practice of forecasting is identified and suggestions made in order to benefit as much as possible from present knowledge while avoiding the major mistakes made in the past. The paper concludes with the presentation of a theoretical framework and a "utilisation guide" necessary if forecasting is to become useful and relevant to real-life, future-orientated decision making

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