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Global diffusion of technological innovations: a couple-hazard approach (RV of 97/50/MKT)

Author: Parker, Philip M. ; Dekimpe, M. G ; Sarvary, M.INSEAD Area: Marketing Series: Working Paper ; 98/68/MKT (revised version of 97/50/MKT) Publisher: Fontainebleau : INSEAD, 1998.Language: EnglishDescription: 30 p.Type of document: INSEAD Working Paper Online Access: Click here Abstract: The paper proposes a new methodology called the "coupled-hazard approach" to study the global diffusion of technological innovations. This coupled approach addresses several methodological challenges arising from the global nature of the considered diffusion process and the intricacies of the type of innovations studied. First, a global diffusion process is typically composed of two ceonceptually different, yet inter-linked, processes: 1) diffusion across countries and 2) diffusion within each country. Second, due to network externalities and/or the presence of central decision makers, technological innovations often exhibit diffusion patterns that cannot be captured by traditional models. In particular, within-country adoption often occurs in "blocks" or "packets" of various size, which prevents the use of S(shaped diffusion models. Finally, technological innovations may complement or subsitute existing ones, which raises the issue of how the size of the installed base of the old technoogy affects the new diffusion process. Previous title: Global diffusion of network technologies: a double-hazard approach - Parker, Philip M.;Dekimpe, M. G;Savary, - 1997 - INSEAD Working Paper
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The paper proposes a new methodology called the "coupled-hazard approach" to study the global diffusion of technological innovations. This coupled approach addresses several methodological challenges arising from the global nature of the considered diffusion process and the intricacies of the type of innovations studied. First, a global diffusion process is typically composed of two ceonceptually different, yet inter-linked, processes: 1) diffusion across countries and 2) diffusion within each country. Second, due to network externalities and/or the presence of central decision makers, technological innovations often exhibit diffusion patterns that cannot be captured by traditional models. In particular, within-country adoption often occurs in "blocks" or "packets" of various size, which prevents the use of S(shaped diffusion models. Finally, technological innovations may complement or subsitute existing ones, which raises the issue of how the size of the installed base of the old technoogy affects the new diffusion process.

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