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Globalization: modeling technology adoption timing across countries (RV of 97/75/MKT)

Author: Parker, Philip M. ; Dekimpe, M. G ; Sarvary, M.INSEAD Area: Marketing Series: Working Paper ; 98/69/MKT (revised version of 97/75/MKT) Publisher: Fontainebleau : INSEAD, 1998.Language: EnglishDescription: 29 p.Type of document: INSEAD Working Paper Online Access: Click here Abstract: The authors study global adoption processes where the units of observation are countries which sequentially adopt a particular innovation. Their goal is to provide a better understanding of how exogenous and endogenous country characteristics affect this diffusion process. They develop a general model of global adoption processes that allow researchers to test extant theories of cross-country adoption, and illustrate the approach using data from the cellular telephone industry for 184 countries. In their application, they find support for the existence of a global 'demonstration effect' : as the number of countries adopting the technology becomes larger, the likelihood of "similar" countries following their example increases. The authors also find that isolated economies lag in adopting technologies, and that countries with homogenous and concentrated populations, and with a high level of economic development are, on average, earlier adopters. Finally, our model supports the managerial intuition that eventually, all countries will adopt cellular technology. Previous title: Globalization: modelling technology adoption timing across countries - Parker, Philip M.;Dekimpe, M. G;Sarvary, - 1997 - INSEAD Working Paper
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The authors study global adoption processes where the units of observation are countries which sequentially adopt a particular innovation. Their goal is to provide a better understanding of how exogenous and endogenous country characteristics affect this diffusion process. They develop a general model of global adoption processes that allow researchers to test extant theories of cross-country adoption, and illustrate the approach using data from the cellular telephone industry for 184 countries. In their application, they find support for the existence of a global 'demonstration effect' : as the number of countries adopting the technology becomes larger, the likelihood of "similar" countries following their example increases. The authors also find that isolated economies lag in adopting technologies, and that countries with homogenous and concentrated populations, and with a high level of economic development are, on average, earlier adopters. Finally, our model supports the managerial intuition that eventually, all countries will adopt cellular technology.

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