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Quantitative concepts for management: decision making without algorithms

Author: Gould, F. J ; Eppen, Gary D.Publisher: Prentice Hall, 1985.Edition: 2nd ed.Language: EnglishDescription: 689 p. ; 25 cm.ISBN: 0137466374Type of document: BookBibliography/Index: Includes bibliographical references and index
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Item type Current location Collection Call number Status Date due
Book Doriot Library
Main Collection
Print HD30.25 .E66 1985
(Browse shelf)
000159719
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Includes bibliographical references and index

Digitized

PREFACE xix An introduction to Models 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1 MODELS, COMPUTERS, AND PLANNING 1 DIFFERENT TYPES OF MODELS AND THREE EXAMPLES 2 QUANTITATIVE DECISION MODELS 5 MODEL BUILDING 8 ON THE USE AND IMPLEMENTATION OF MODELING 10 MAJOR CONCEPTS QUIZ 12 PROBLEMS 13 CHAP7Ei 2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 Data and Models 15 V INTRODUCTION 15 PROTRAC : HISTORICAL SKETCH 15 DATA AS A MODEL: AN EXAMPLE 16 DATA-RELATED CONSIDERATIONS 19 PLOTS AND GRAPHS 20 AN EXAMPLE: PROTRAC ANNUAL PRODUCTION DECISIONS 24 MAJOR CONCEPTS QUIZ 27 PROBLEMS 29 CHAPTER 3 3.1 3.2 Constrained Optimization Models 30 INTRODUCTION 30 MATHEMATICAL FORMULATION AND INTERPRETATION 32 THE HYDE PARK POLICE CAPTAIN 33 3.3 ANOTHER EXAMPLE: ASTRO/COSMO 37 3.4 APPLICATIONS OF CONSTRAINED OPTIMIZATION 3.5 MODELS 39 3.6 CONSTRAINED VERSUS UNCONSTRAINED OPTIMIZATION 39 3.7 WHY CONSTRAINTS ARE IMPOSED 41 3.8 INTUITIVE VERSUS FORMAL MODELING 45 3.9 MAJOR CONCEPTS QUIZ 46 3.10 PROBLEMS 47 Formulation of Constrained Optimization Models 48 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.10 4.11 APPLICATIONS CAPSULE: ALLOCATING A SCARCE RESOURCE 48 INTRODUCTION 49 GUIDELINES AND COMMENTS ON MODEL FORMULATION 50 SUNK VERSUS VARIABLE COST 51 PRODUCT-MIX EXAMPLES 53 A BLENDING EXAMPLE 60 MULTIPERIOD INVENTORY EXAMPLES 62 CAPITAL-BUDGETING PROBLEMS 68 A MEDIA-PLANNING EXAMPLE 73 ADDITIONAL EXAMPLES AND SOLUTIONS 75 MAJOR CONCEPTS QUIZ 85 PROBLEMS 88 CASE: RED BRAND CANNERS 100 CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 5 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.10 5.11 5.12 5.13 5.14 5.15 5.16 5.17 Geometric Representation of the Linear Programming Model 104 INTRODUCTION 104 PLOTTING INEQUALITIES AND CONTOURS 105 SOLVING THE LINEAR MODEL WITH INEQUALITY CONSTRAINTS 107 ACTIVE AND INACTIVE CONSTRAINTS 114 EXTREME POINTS AND OPTIMAL SOLUTIONS 118 SUMMARY OF THE GRAPHICAL SOLUTION METHOD FOR A MAX MODEL 120 THE GRAPHICAL METHOD APPLIED TO A MIN MODEL 120 UNBOUNDED AND INFEASIBLE PROBLEMS 121 INTRODUCTION TO SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 124 CHANGES IN THE OBJECTIVE FUNCTION COEFFICIENTS AND ALTERNATIVE OPTIMA 126 CHANGES IN THE RIGHT-HAND SIDES 128 TIGHTENING AND LOOSENING AN INEQUALITY CONSTRAINT 130 WHAT IS AN IMPORTANT CONSTRAINT? 132 ADDING OR DELETING CONSTRAINTS 133 EXAMPLES AND SOLUTIONS 135 MAJOR CONCEPTS QUIZ 139 PROBLEMS 141 CHAPTER 6 Linear Programs: Computer Analysis and interpreting sensitivity output 746 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 APPLICATIONS CAPSULE: AN INVENTORY OF TRUCKS 146 INTRODUCTION 147 THE PROBLEM THE COMPUTER SOLVES 147 MID-CHAPTER SUMMARY 156 THE CRAWLER TREAD OUTPUT: A DIALOGUE WITH MANAGEMENT (SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN ACTION) 157 A SYNOPSIS OF THE SOLUTION OUTPUT 166 EXAMPLES AND SOLUTIONS 169 MAJOR CONCEPTS QUIZ 175 PROBLEMS 178 APPENDIX 6.1: QUESTIONS BASED ON RED BRAND CANNERS CASE 788 CASE: SAW MILL RIVER FEED AND GRAIN COMPANY 189 DIAGNOSTIC ASSIGNMENT: CRAWLER TREAD AND A NEW ANGLE 191 DIAGNOSTIC ASSIGNMENT: WINSTON-SALEM DEVELOPMENT MANAGEMENT 194 COMPUTER PRINTOUTS: 6.5, 6.8, 6.9, 6.10, 6.12, 6.14, 6.16, 6.17, 6.18, 6.19 CHAPTER 7 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.10 7.11 7.12 7.13 7.14 Speciar LP Topics: Duality, v(b) and v(c) 798 INTRODUCTION 198 THE DUAL PROBLEM 198 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 209 ILLUSTRATING DUAL-PRICE OUTPUT 210 THE V(b) FUNCTION 213 RHS CHANGES OUTSIDE THE ALLOWABLE RANGE 215 GEOMETRY OF THE V(b) FUNCTION IN GENERAL 217 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AND V(c) 228 GEOMETRY OF THE l'(c) FUNCTION 225 ESTIMATING CHANGES IN V(c) 228 ALTERNATIVE OPTIMA 230 EXAMPLES AND SOLUTIONS 232 MAJOR CONCEPTS QUIZ 241 PROBLEMS 243 DIAGNOSTIC ASSIGNMENT: PALM OIL REFINING 247 COMPUTER PRINTOUTS: 7.3, 7.14, 7.25, 7.33, 7.34, 7.35, 7.36 Management Science in Action: Optimizing Production, Marketing, and Distribution at PROTRAC 252 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 INTRODUCTION 252 THE FORMAL MODEL 255 EXAMPLES AND SOLUTIONS PROBLEMS 262 259 CHAPTER 8 CHAPTER 9 Two Case Studies at PROTRAC Based on Computer Analysis of the Mode/ 264 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 INTRODUCTION 264 ACTIVITY ANALYSIS 266 AN INVESTMENT ANALYSIS 276 EXAMPLES AND SOLUTIONS 283 DIAGNOSTIC ASSIGNMENT: NEW CONDITIONS AT PROTRAC 295 COMPUTER PRINTOUTS: 9.2, 9.9, 9.16, 9.17, 9.20, 9.21 CHAPTER 10 Multiple Objectives and Goal Programming 299 APPLICATIONS CAPSULE: NATIONAL CENTER FOR DRUG ANALYSIS 299 APPLICATIONS CAPSULE: MANAGEMENT OF COLLEGE STUDENT RECRUITING ACTIVITIES 300 INTRODUCTION 300 GOAL PROGRAMMING 301 SUMMARY ON THE USE OF GENERAL CONSTRAINTS 304 GOAL PROGRAMMING WITH ABSOLUTE PRIORITIES 306 SWENSON'S GOAL PROGRAMMING MODEL 308 GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS AND COMPUTER IMPLEMENTATION OF THE SOLUTION PROCEDURE 309 COMBINING WEIGHTS AND ABSOLUTE PRIORITIES 314 AN ALTERNATIVE INTERPRETATION OF GOAL PROGRAMS WITH ABSOLUTE PRIORITIES 316 MAJOR CONCEPTS QUIZ 317 PROBLEMS 319 COMPUTER PRINTOUTS: 10.3, 10.5, 10.7. 10.9, 10.11, 10.13 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.9 10.10 Integer Programming and Network Models 327 APPLICATIONS CAPSULE: USING INTEGER PROGRAMMING TO SCHEDULE TRAINING AT AMERICAN AIRLINES 321 APPLICATIONS CAPSULE: A NETWORK MODEL AT AIR PRODUCTS AND CHEMICALS, INC. 322 INTRODUCTION TO INTEGER PROGRAMMING 322 THE LINEAR IP MODEL: GRAPHICAL INTERPRETATIONS 326 APPLICATIONS OF O/l VARIABLES 331 AN IP VIGNETTE: STECO'S WAREHOUSE LOCATION PROBLEM-FORMULATION AND COMPUTER ANALYSIS 342 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN IP 346 NOTES ON IMPLEMENTATION OF INTEGER PROGRAMMING 347 NETWORK MODELS 348 AN EXAMPLE: SEYMOUR MILES (A CAPACITATED TRANSSHIPMENT MODEL) 349 A GENERAL FORMULATION OF THE CAPACITATED TRANSSHIPMENT MODEL 352 THE TRANSPORTATION AND ASSIGNMENT MODELS 353 THE SHORTEST-ROUTE PROBLEM 354 THE MIN-COST-FLOW PROBLEM 358 THE MAX-FLOW PROBLEM 357 NOTES ON IMPLEMENTATION OF NETWORK MODELS 358 EXAMPLES AND SOLUTIONS 359 MAJOR CONCEPTS QUIZ 362 PROBLEMS 364 DIAGNOSTIC ASSIGNMENT: ASSIGNING SALES REPRESENTATIVES 371 CASE: MUNICIPAL BOND UNDERWRITING 374 COMPUTER PRINTOUTS: 11.5, 11.6, 11.15, 11.38 CHAPTER 11 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.9 11.10 11.11 11.12 11.13 11.14 11.15 11.16 11.17 CHAPTER 12 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.6 INTRODUCTION 379 THE GLOBAL OIL CREDIT CARD OPERATION 380 THE CRITICAL PATH: MEETING THE BOARD'S DEADLINE 385 VARIABILITY IN ACTIVITY TIMES 394 A MID-CHAPTER SUMMARY 397 CPM AND TIME-COST TRADE-OFFS 398 12.7 12.8 12.9 PROJECT COST MANAGEMENT: PERT/COST 404 MAJOR CONCEPTS QUIZ 411 PROBLEMS 413 COMPUTER PRINTOUTS: 12.13, 12.14, 12.16, 12.18, 12.24. 12.29 CHAPTER 13 Calculus-Based Optimization and an introduction 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.9 INTRODUCTION 422 UNCONSTRAINED OPTIMIZATION IN TWO DECISION VARIABLES 423 UNCONSTRAINED OPTIMIZATION IN n DECISION VARIABLES: THE COMPUTER APPROACH 426 NONLINEAR OPTIMIZATION WITH CONSTRAINTS: A DESCRIPTIVE GEOMETRIC INTRODUCTION 427 EQUALITY-CONSTRAINED MODELS AND LAGRANGE MULTIPLIERS 430 DIFFERENT TYPES OF NLP PROBLEMS AND SOLVABILITY 438 NOTES ON IMPLEMENTATION 443 MAJOR CONCEPTS QUIZ 444 PROBLEMS CHAPTER 14 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 14.10 xi 1 4 . 1 1 Decision Theory and Decision Trees 448 APPLICATIONS CAPSULE: DESIGNING A COMPLEX INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM 448 INTRODUCTION 449 THREE CLASSES OF DECISION PROBLEMS 450 THE EXPECTED VALUE OF PERFECT INFORMATION: NEWSBOY PROBLEM UNDER RISK 457 UTILITIES AND DECISIONS UNDER RISK 459 ANOTHER LOOK AT RISK 464 A MID-CHAPTER SUMMARY 466 DECISION TREES: MARKETING HOME AND GARDEN TRACTORS 467 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 470 DECISION TREES: INCORPORATING NEW INFORMATION 472 SEQUENTIAL DECISIONS: TO TEST OR NOT TO TEST 480 EXAMPLES AND SOLUTIONS 483 14.12 14.13 14.14 NOTES ON IMPLEMENTATION 490 MAJOR CONCEPTS QUIZ 491 PROBLEMS 493 DIAGNOSTIC ASSIGNMENT: JOHNSON'S METAL 498 CASE: TO DRILL OR NOT TO DRILL 499 CHAPTER 15 Inventory Control with Known Demand 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.9 501 APPLICATIONS CAPSULE: COORDINATING DECISIONS FOR INCREASED PROFITS 501 INTRODUCTION 502 STECO WHOLESALING: THE CURRENT POLICY 504 THE ECONOMIC ORDER QUANTITY MODEL 508 QUANTITY DISCOUNTS AND STECO'S OVERALL OPTIMUM 517 THE EOQ MODEL WITH BACKLOGGING 519 THE PRODUCTION LOT SIZE MODEL: VICTOR'S HEAT TREATMENT PROBLEM 522 MATERIAL REQUIREMENTS PLANNING : FARMCRAFT MANUFACTURING CO. 525 MAJOR CONCEPTS QUIZ 528 PROBLEMS 530 APPENDIX 15.1: THE EQ MODEL 534 Inventory Models 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.8 INTRODUCTION 536 THE REORDER POINT-REORDER QUANTITY MODEL 537 THE APPLIANCE ANGLE PROBLEM 537 VICTOR'S CHOICE OF r: UNIFORM LEAD-TIME DEMAND 538 SELECTING A PROBABILITY OF STOCKING OUT 540 VICTOR'S CHOICE OF I: NORMAL LEAD TIME DEMAND 542 EXPECTED ANNUAL COST OF SAFETY STOCK 543 ONE-PERIOD MODELS WITH PROBABILISTIC DEMAND (WILES' HOUSEWARES PROBLEM) 545 16.9 THE NEWSBOY PROBLEM 546 16.10 NOTES ON IMPLEMENTATION 549 16.11 MAJOR CONCEPTS QUIZ 550 16.12 PROBLEMS DIAGNOSTIC ASSIGNMENT: INVENTORY TURNS 554 xii 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.9 INTRODUCTION 556 QUANTITATIVE FORECASTING 557 CASUAL FORECASTING MODELS 558 TIME-SERIES FORECASTING MODELS 568 THE ROLE OF HISTORICAL DATA: DIVIDE AND CONQUER 582 QUALITATIVE FORECASTING 589 NOTES ON IMPLEMENTATION 586 MAJOR CONCEPTS QUIZ 588 PROBLEMS 589 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.8 18.9 18.10 18.11 18.12 ... XIII APPLICATIONS CAPSULE: NAVAL SHIP PRODUCTION 593 APPLICATIONS CAPSULE: PLANNING TO GET THE LEAD OUT 594 APPLICATIONS CAPSULE: THE CAMPAIGN AGAINST BRUCELLOSIS 595 INTRODUCTION 596 SIMULATION AND RANDOM NUMBERS 597 A SIMPLE HAND SIMULATION: THE FRAME-PROCESSING MACHINE 599 THE ANALYTIC APPROACH VERSUS SIMULATION : INVENTORY AT WILES' HOUSEWARES 604 USING CONTINUOUS DISTRIBUTIONS TO GENERATE RANDOM EVENTS 609 COMPUTER SIMULATION OF WILES' PROBLEM 611 SIMULATING THE PAST 613 NOTES ON IMPLEMENTATION 616 SIMULATION VERSUS OPTIMIZATION 619 ADVANTAGES AND LIMITATIONS OF SIMULATION 620 MAJOR CONCEPTS QUIZ 622 PROBLEMS 623 DIAGNOSTIC ASSIGNMENT: SCHEDULING TANKER ARRIVALS 628 COMPUTER PRINTOUTS: 18.13, 18.25, 18.26 Queuing Models 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.5 19.6 19.7 19.8 19.9 19.10 19.11 19.12 19.13 632 INTRODUCTION 632 THE BASIC MODEL 633 LITTLE'S FLOW EQUATION AND OTHER GENERALITIES PROBLEM 1 : A MULTIPLE-CHANNEL QUEUE (HEMATOLOGY LAB) 638 A TAXONOMY OF QUEUING MODELS 641 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF QUEUING SYSTEMS 641 PROBLEM 2: THE M/G/s MODEL WITH BLOCKED CUSTOMERS CLEARED (WATS LINES) 643 PROBLEM 3: THE REPAIRMAN PROBLEM 647 THE ROLE OF THE EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION 649 QUEUE DISCIPLINE 650 NOTES ON IMPLEMENTATION 651 MAJOR CONCEPTS QUIZ 651 PROBLEMS 653 COMPUTER PRINTOUTS: 19.10 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 20.5 20.6 20.7 20.8 INTRODUCTION 656 THE SHORTEST-ROUTE PROBLEM 656 RECURSIVE RELATIONSHIPS 658 THE KNAPSACK PROBLEM 661 THE GENERAL MODEL 668 THE CURSE OF DIMENSIONALITY 669 MAJOR CONCEPTS QUIZ 670 PROBLEMS 671 xiv

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