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Human inference: strategies and shortcomings of social judgment

Author: Nisbett, Richard E. ; Ross, Lee Series: Century psychology series Publisher: Prentice Hall, 1980.Language: EnglishDescription: xvi, 334 p ; 24 cm.ISBN: 0134451309Type of document: BookNote: Includes indexes/Bibliography: p. 297-317
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Book Doriot Library
Main Collection
Print BF311 .N57 1980
(Browse shelf)

Includes indexes/Bibliography: p. 297-317


Human Inferences: Strategies and Shortcomings of Social Judgment contents preface xi acknowledgements XV I Intuitive Strategies of Inference 1 AN INTRODUCTION TO THE INTUITIVE SCIENTIST 3 the framework of the book 4 the tools of the intuitive scientist 6 inferential problems and the formal scientific requirements for their solution 8 judgment and behavior 11 cognitions hot and cold 12 the question of normativeness: the scientist as critic summary 15 13 vii v i i i Contents 2 JUDGMENTAL HEURISTICS AND KNOWLEDGE STRUCTURES 1 7 the availability heuristic 18 the representativeness heuristic 24 knowledge structures: theories and schemas 2 8 inferential adjtcstment and its limitations 41 summary 42 3 ASSIGNING WEIGHTS TO DATA: THE "VIVIDNESS CRITERION" 4 3 factors contributing to the vividness of information 45 explaining the impact of vivid information 51 redundancy, recruitment, and rehearsal 53 inferential effects of pallid data summaries versus vivid cases nonnative considerations 59 summary 62 55 II Inferential Tasks: Normative Principles and Lay Practice 4 CHARACTERIZING THE DATUM, SAMPLE, AND POPULATION 6 5 characterizing the datum: the role of preconceptions 6 6 characterizing the data sample: availability biases 73 generalizing from instances to populations: representativeness versus sampling theory 77 summary 89 5 ASSESSMENT OF COVARIATION 90 judging covariation from fourfold tables 91 illusory correlation 93 dota-driven and theory-driven judgments of covariation 9 7 conditioning and covariation detection 101 covariation detection and the perception of personal consistency Covariation detection and social adaptation 109 summary 111 106 Contents ix 6 CAUSAL ANALYSIS 113 causal analysis and the representativeness heuristic 115 causal analysis and the availability heuristic 122 misguided parsimony: the `hydraulic" model of causation 127 missing causal schemas 130 intrusion of causal theories into inappropriate domains 135 summary 137 7 PREDICTION 139 human intuitions versus actuarial formulas 140 base rates versus the representativeness criterion 141 nonregressive prediction tendencies 150 the dilution effect: producing "regressive" predictions by exposure to nondiagnostic information 154 circumstances prompting the utilization of base rates in prediction regression phenomena: occasional recognition and chronic miscontrual 160 summary 165 156 8 THEORY MAINTENANCE AND THEORY CHANGE 167 old theories and new evidence 169 sequential processing of evidence: the primacy effect 172 belief perseverance after evidential discrediting 175 mechanisms underlying perseverance phenomena 179 when theories add beliefs do change 188 belief perseverance: the normative question 191 summary 192 9 Inferential Errors: Their Causes, Consequences, and Cures THE LAY SCIENTIST SELF-EXAMINED 195 characterizing one's own behavioral dispositions 196 assessing one's own emotions and attitudes 199 causal explanations of one's own behavior 202 The basis of causal accounts 210 the accuracy of causal accounts in everyday life 216 actors' unique sources of insight and error 223 self-knowledge and self-improvement 226 summary 226 x Contents 10 PSYCHODYNAMICS VERSUS PSYCHOLOGIC 228 hot vs. cold cognition: an historical perspective 228 self-serving biases in causal attributions 231 ethnic prejudice., hearts or minds? 237 psychoanalysis, psychodynamics, and the representatiueness heuristic 242 summary 247 11 ASSESSING THE DAMAGE 249 reconciling inferential triumphs with inferential failures 250 when intuitive strategies serve us well 254 when ignorance of normative rules may cost us little 255 inference as a collective enterprise 266 compensatory errors 267 inference and behavior 269 summary 271 12 IMPROVING HUMAN INFERENCE: POSSIBILITIES AND LIMITATIONS 273 the status of the layperson: pure scientist or applied practitioner? costs and benefits of formal vs. intuitive strategies 276 programs to improve inferential strategies 280 overcoming the barriers to change 286 the role and responsibilities of the social scientist 294 summary 295 274 references 297 name index 319 subject index 327

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